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Mesoscale Discussion 935
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL INDIANA...WRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151923Z - 152100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL APPEARS TO
   BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL AND CNTRL INDIANA IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING TOWERING CU
   AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A BROAD CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS
   CNTRL IL...AND ACROSS W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL IND. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO EXTREME
   INSTABILITY /AOA 2500 J/KG/...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
   GENERALLY WEAK...AND SFC FLOW VEERED/WLY...THE MOIST AND UNCAPPED
   AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS GIVEN 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
   BEING DMGG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED BY THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED
   FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE THE
   ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL IND...AND
   NWRN OH THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41228640 41618573 41578409 41058351 40138387 39028631
               39138744 39188869 39438931 39848933 40458803 41228640 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2016
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