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Mesoscale Discussion 936
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081541Z - 081745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
   ACCOMPANY A LINE SEGMENT PROGRESSING E FROM WRN NY THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...1-MIN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 5-KM CAPPI RADAR IMAGERY
   CONFIRM SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF A LINE SEGMENT FROM MONROE TO
   CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MODIFIED 12Z PIT RAOB SUGGESTS DOWNSTREAM WARM
   SECTOR IN SWRN NY ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
   WITH SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. EAST OF THE 77TH MERIDIAN...SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 60S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
   THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH NERN EXTENT GIVEN 45-50 KT
   FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS MAY
   LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY TO A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. BUT GIVEN 0-1 KM
   SHEAR AROUND 35 KT PER BGM VWP DATA...DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   43087738 43297689 43517621 43597549 43397497 43077499
               42427539 42057620 41917788 42037849 42257859 43087738 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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