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Mesoscale Discussion 936
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN TO
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101534Z - 101730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL AND MIDDLE TN
   INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...AND POSSIBLY
   PORTIONS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONE OR
   MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A FRAGMENTED BOWING-PORTION OF A BROAD SQUALL LINE
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
   TN...AS FAST AS 40-45 KT AS OF 1515Z. WHILE THIS PORTION OF THE LINE
   IS LIKELY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...OVER TIME...A WARMING/MOISTENING
   BOUNDARY LAYER /ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS APPROACH THE MIDDLE 70S F/ COULD
   LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-MORNING SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF
   RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO EAST-CENTRAL KY TO
   THE SOUTH OF NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
   DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MODEST /SUB-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/...AN
   INCREASINGLY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT
   DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

   FARTHER SOUTH...AN INCIPIENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION MAY ALREADY BE
   OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST AL AS OF 1530Z
   FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW. CONTEMPORARY
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BIRMINGHAM...TO
   ACCOUNT FOR LOWER 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AL AT
   15Z...INDICATE NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WITH AROUND 2300 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36618796 37958694 38338552 37168439 33158632 32638771
               34458741 35268737 36038735 36618796 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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