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Mesoscale Discussion 936
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0936
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

   Areas affected...A small part of southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012120Z - 012215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A bowing segment has organized across Pecos County, Texas
   in the past 1-2 hours, with additional trailing activity along an
   outflow boundary to it's west/southwest.  A WW is not anticipated
   for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Storms in southwest Texas have begun to propagate
   slowly eastward - particularly across Pecos County, Texas - over the
   past hour or so, with additional activity developing westward into
   southern Hudspeth County and near the El Paso area.  Strong surface
   heating within the pre-convective airmass ahead of this linear
   complex has fostered moderate to strong destabilization, with recent
   objective analyses suggesting up to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE just southeast
   of the Pecos County linear segment and somewhat lower instability
   values farther to the west.  Deep shear is modest in the region,
   with 20-25 kt mid-level flow not necessarily supportive of
   convective organization, although development of new updrafts along
   the leading edge of the slow-moving outflow will aid in some forward
   propagation.  An isolated hail/wind threat will spread
   eastward/southeastward from the current position of the outflow (and
   near/ahead of ongoing storms).  This threat should be too
   sparse/localized for a WW issuance, although convective trends will
   be monitored through the afternoon.

   ..Cook.. 06/01/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29660338 29860421 30700512 31480615 31740639 31850620
               31570510 31200365 31290313 31500242 31550166 31280089
               30730040 30070037 29650086 29770147 29860215 29720282

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