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Mesoscale Discussion 937
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN
   KY...AND MUCH OF TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081708Z - 081845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALL POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING AS OF 17Z
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA...MOST LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE W AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   SEWD ACROSS THE MO/IND/IL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
   BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS KY/TN...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
   TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SLY TO SWLY WINDS HAVE
   BROUGHT A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE MCD AREA...WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LATEST RAP
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z
   SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE TN ARE ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM.

   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...AND A
   SPEED MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE AREA
   FROM THE W. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
   35-45 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...
   INCLUDING BOWING CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELLS...WILL LIKELY BE THE
   PRIMARY STORM MODES INITIALLY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2.
   HOWEVER...SFC WINDS VEERED TO SWLY MAY TEND TO LIMIT LOW-LEVEL
   SRH...AND THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT. REGARDLESS...WW ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35138771 35139021 35779085 36859082 37198897 37278618
               37038414 36808291 35088495 35138771 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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