|Mesoscale Discussion 937|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017
Areas affected...Western/Central TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021837Z - 022100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of landspouts possible through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV near
the central TX/NM border with building cumulus to the east of this
feature across the western TX Panhandle. Weak flow aloft and
resulting minimal shear will preclude organized thunderstorm
activity and mostly weak multicellular is anticipated. Even so,
vorticity-rich environment fostered by the presence of the MCV
combined with the presence of steep low-level lapse rates (i.e.
around 7.5 to 8 deg C per km from 0-3 km per the latest
mesoanalysis) and low-level instability (evidenced by 0-3 km MLCAPE
generally greater than 75 J/kg) will result in the potential for a
few brief, non-mesocyclone tornadoes (i.e. landspouts) this
afternoon. Brief and very marginal nature of the threat posed by any
of these landspouts precludes the need for a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31850273 32720296 34700307 35940277 36010145 35560095
33610072 32830070 31850104 31850273
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