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Mesoscale Discussion 937
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO TO SOUTHWEST IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101745Z - 101945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MO TO
   SOUTHWEST IL.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY
   VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
   MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS CYCLONE IS IN A STAGE OF
   OCCLUSION...STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE UPPER COLD POCKET /-13C AT 500MB/
   CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN AN ARCING CORRIDOR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
   SURFACE LOW. IN THE PRESENCE OF AMBIENT VERTICAL
   VORTICITY...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE
   OCCLUSION/WIND SHIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH UPWARDS OF 100-125 J/KG OF
   0-3 KM CAPE. AS SUCH...FUNNELS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...ASIDE
   FROM MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   AREAS INCLUDING CENTRAL/EASTERN MO TO SOUTHWEST IL.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38119382 39429263 39849114 39668983 38488950 37848999
               38179081 38169154 37239264 38119382 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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