|Mesoscale Discussion 938|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017
Areas affected...eastern Colorado through western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021903Z - 022130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase in coverage this afternoon
from eastern CO into portions of western NE posing a risk for
isolated downburst winds and small hail. Overall threat appears too
limited for any WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a few showers and thunderstorms
are developing along a lee trough from eastern CO to southwest NE.
Strong diabatic warming is destabilizing the near-surface layer
where dewpoints are in the 40s to low 50s F. Deeply mixed,
inverted-V boundary layers, 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE, and weakening
convective inhibition should support additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Vertical shear is weak with pulse and
multicell storms likely to be the dominant modes, but the
thermodynamic environment will promote a risk for mainly isolated
downburst winds though early evening. In addition, a landspout or
two cannot be ruled out over northeast CO.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39100409 40030398 41210321 42390178 42210100 41350121
39850200 38930235 37980276 37880375 39100409
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home