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Mesoscale Discussion 938
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101800Z - 101930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
   SOME HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
   EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KY. CURRENT THINKING IS
   THAT A WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO 1830Z.

   DISCUSSION...A FRAGMENTED SQUALL LINE/RESIDUAL COLD POOL CONTINUES
   TO STEADILY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN AS OF
   18Z...WITH A PRECEDING SUPERCELL NOTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TN. THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER PRECEDING THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KY
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM/MOISTEN TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
   LOCATED NEAR THE OH RIVER. ACCOUNTING FOR UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S F
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 60S DEWPOINTS...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION IS ESSENTIALLY GONE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE
   AROUND/JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/ADEQUATE BUOYANCY...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP
   LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR A
   COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED/RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS AND
   A FEW PRECEDING SUPERCELLS. REGARDING THE DEGREE OF SHEAR...LATEST
   WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM HOPKINSVILLE KY IS SHOWING 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND
   40KT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL...WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37718646 38638499 38368313 37808252 36728337 36728589
               37718646 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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