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Mesoscale Discussion 938
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...ERN KY...SWRN VA...WRN MD PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081710Z - 081915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS EVOLVING E FROM WRN WV/ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE BY 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...1-MIN VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS DEEPENING CONVECTION
   OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG A REMNANT SW/NE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WRN WV INTO ERN KY. ALTHOUGH THE REGION SHOULD
   HAVE WEAKER SHEAR COMPARED TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE N OVER
   THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND TO THE W OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN
   VALLEY...EFFECTIVE VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM AT 700-500 MB IN REGIONAL 12Z
   RAOBS...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING YIELDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SHOULD AID IN A PREDOMINANT RISK OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   39398086 39788044 39837947 39787868 39557851 38777904
               36898154 36718215 36698260 36788360 36878395 37178398
               37518337 38258208 39398086 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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