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Mesoscale Discussion 939
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0939
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

   Areas affected...Central SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021948Z - 022115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail possible this
   afternoon across central SD. Low severe coverage is expected to
   preclude the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
   agitated cu field across central SD. Strengthening updrafts within
   this cu field have resulted in lightning over the last 30 mins.
   Current surface analysis indicates this development is just ahead of
   a pre-frontal trough and within a broad area of pre-frontal
   confluence. Overall look of the cu field and recent surface
   observations and model soundings suggest this develop is based quite
   high, likely over 10kft. Expectation is for the areal extent of this
   activity to increase over the next hour or so while moving
   north-northeastward. Weak shear will likely preclude anything but
   modest storm organization but near dry adiabatic low-level lapse
   rates and high storm bases will result in the potential damaging
   wind gusts within the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible,
   particularly as storms move north-northeastward into a more unstable
   airmass across north-central SD. Anticipated severe coverage is
   expected to be low, precluding higher watch probabilities, but
   convective trends across the area will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Weiss.. 06/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44890144 45720092 45870059 45949996 45739953 44979944
               43350047 42980167 43450235 44890144 

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