|Mesoscale Discussion 939|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017
Areas affected...Central SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021948Z - 022115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail possible this
afternoon across central SD. Low severe coverage is expected to
preclude the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated cu field across central SD. Strengthening updrafts within
this cu field have resulted in lightning over the last 30 mins.
Current surface analysis indicates this development is just ahead of
a pre-frontal trough and within a broad area of pre-frontal
confluence. Overall look of the cu field and recent surface
observations and model soundings suggest this develop is based quite
high, likely over 10kft. Expectation is for the areal extent of this
activity to increase over the next hour or so while moving
north-northeastward. Weak shear will likely preclude anything but
modest storm organization but near dry adiabatic low-level lapse
rates and high storm bases will result in the potential damaging
wind gusts within the strongest storms. Some hail is also possible,
particularly as storms move north-northeastward into a more unstable
airmass across north-central SD. Anticipated severe coverage is
expected to be low, precluding higher watch probabilities, but
convective trends across the area will be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44890144 45720092 45870059 45949996 45739953 44979944
43350047 42980167 43450235 44890144
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