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Mesoscale Discussion 940
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101839Z - 101945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS IS FORECAST TO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN/CNTRL VA. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
   STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...BUT THIS THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
   CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL VA...WITH POCKETS OF INCREASING CU
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS. A WEAK
   BOUNDARY WAS ALSO NOTED FROM 40 SW MRB TO 10 E CHO AND ARCING BACK
   EWD TO 10 N RIC...WITH RELATIVELY MORE MOIST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SFC
   CONDITIONS NOTED TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S AMIDST A
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
   MID-60 TO LOWER-70S F. ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC AND PBL CIRCULATIONS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS INTO THE
   MID-AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF
   VA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
   HOWEVER...WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING DCAPE
   VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...AND A BELT OF MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW OF
   20-30 KT POSITIONED OVERHEAD...A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS COULD
   MATERIALIZE AND SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38297737 37237779 36787819 36727894 36807929 36867970
               37317971 37877921 38947853 39027827 39007793 38297737 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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