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Mesoscale Discussion 940
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0940
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

   Areas affected...Central and eastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022039Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
   across portions of central and eastern ND.

   DISCUSSION...High-based cu continues within the pre-frontal
   confluence across central ND. A few stronger updrafts are noted
   within the visible imagery and confirmed by recent lightning strikes
   and a potentially strong to severe storm in Kidder county. The
   airmass across the region is warm, moist, and unstable with recent
   surface observations sampling temperatures in the low 90s and
   dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s and recent mesoanalysis
   estimating MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg. This favorable thermodynamic
   environment is somewhat tempered by a less-than-optimal kinematic
   environment characterized by weak mid-level flow (around 20kt at 500
   mb) and weak bulk shear (0-6 km bulk shear less than 25 kt). Even
   so, the strong instability and cool temperatures aloft suggest there
   is some threat for severe hail. Additionally, high storm bases and
   steep low-level lapse rates will foster an environment favorable for
   damaging wind gusts. Storms in this area are expected to be slightly
   more numerous and stronger than areas farther southwest in central
   SD. As a result, convective trends will be monitored closely for
   possible watch issuance across portions of central and eastern ND.

   ..Mosier/Weiss.. 06/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48830009 49159882 48459782 46239815 45939960 46480066

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