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Mesoscale Discussion 940
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081806Z - 082000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF LOWER MI AS
   OF 18Z...WITH WLY WINDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT PREDOMINANT.
   TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA...AND 1 MIN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 14
   SHOWS NUMEROUS CU TOWERS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN LOWER
   MI. GIVEN THE SHALLOW/WEAK NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD REGION...EVIDENCED BY SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH
   ASSOCIATED COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION TODAY...A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS
   WILL EXIST AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL STORMS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
   FORMED IN THIS REGIME HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION...WITH
   SEVERAL REPORTS OF ONE INCH HAIL RECEIVED OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES.
   CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LARGE HAIL THREAT TO REMAIN TOO
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A WW...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43068232 42518255 42358302 42588414 43898492 44388554
               44948524 45248468 44918331 44238313 43958257 43068232 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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