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Mesoscale Discussion 941
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0941
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/southern MN and northern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022249Z - 030115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorm potential will exist into the
   evening hours from portions of central MN into northern IA, though
   Watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has allowed temperatures to warm
   into the lower 90s in many areas west/southwest of a warm front
   draped northwest-southeast from west-central MN to north-central IA.
   This boundary will continue to advance eastward/northeastward into
   the evening hours. Weak warm advection near this boundary, coupled
   with diurnally bolstered baroclinic circulations across the
   boundary, have promoted widely scattered thunderstorm development --
   concentrated across the warm side of the frontal zone. Steep
   tropospheric lapse rates are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   characterizing convective inflow, despite an overall paucity of
   low-level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s). Large DCAPE will
   support microbursts with an isolated damaging-wind risk, especially
   where local cold-pool amalgamation occurs. Severe hail may also
   accompany incipient intense updrafts. However, with stronger
   effective shear -- and only reaching 20-25 kt -- displaced to the
   cool side of the boundary, storms should remain disorganized while
   slowly spreading eastward/southeastward into the evening hours.
   Isolated severe hail potential may persist well into the evening
   hours, as a cross-frontal low-level jet nocturnally strengthens
   encouraging some increase in warm advection and elevated convection

   ..Cohen/Thompson.. 06/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42789394 43839467 45299558 45959566 46179516 45699417
               44689301 43869249 43039251 42789291 42789394 

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