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Mesoscale Discussion 942
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...FAR SWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101929Z - 102130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
   MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS S-CNTRL MT/N-CNTRL WY AND EVENTUALLY EWD INTO
   SERN MT/NERN WY...AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS
   EVENING. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
   MAY INCREASE AS WELL...AND COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN ID. BELT OF
   RELATIVELY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL MOISTENING AND ASCENT PRECEDING THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ALONG WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND
   STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PRIMARILY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SWRN
   MT...ERN ID...AND NWRN WY. 

   DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   THIS CONVECTION...ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   /ANALYZED FROM SWRN MT ESEWD INTO CNTRL WY/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GRADUAL MOISTENING /CHARACTERIZED BY MID-40S F
   DEWPOINTS/...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   STORM SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION DOWNSHEAR INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL MT
   AND N-CNTRL WY. STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT/ WILL FAVOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT
   WHERE ELY WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH THE LATTER THREAT ENHANCED
   WITH ANY CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45740906 46300387 45510261 43840318 43320472 43350484
               43130858 43290993 44661088 45481047 45740906 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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