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Mesoscale Discussion 942
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276...

   VALID 081920Z - 082045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 276 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES EXISTS WITH A PAIR OF
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS E-CNTRL PA. THIS RISK MAY EXPAND E INTO
   THE PHI CWA AND A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY BY 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHUMBERLAND AND
   JUNIATA/PERRY COUNTIES HAVE THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK
   GIVEN PERSISTENT SSELY SURFACE WINDS AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO
   THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DESPITE PEAK MIXING. EVEN WITH MARGINAL
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
   40-KT AND THE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
   AS WELL. OTHERWISE...GIVEN INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FARTHER
   WEST...SCENARIO FOR UPDRAFT AMALGAMATION YIELDING CLUSTERS AND
   SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS APPEARS ON-TRACK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
   PREDOMINANT DAMAGING WIND RISK TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   39727615 39757785 39847845 40297842 41037790 41397748
               41587702 41627673 41667626 41387601 41097488 40767484
               40357506 39877551 39817574 39757595 39727615 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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