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Mesoscale Discussion 942
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0942
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of Deep South TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031819Z - 031945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible this
   afternoon across western portions of deep South TX. Watch not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Recent KDFX radar imagery has shown a bit more easterly
   motion with the ongoing convective line just west of the
   international border. A slight increase in overall system speed has
   also be noted. At the same time, updraft strength has been largely
   maintained with greater than 50 dBZ noted on the 9km CAPPI. The
   downstream airmass is warm, moist, and unstable with recent
   mesoanalysis estimating the MLCAPE is over 2000 J/kg. This favorable
   thermodynamic environment is tempered somewhat by weak flow below
   300 mb and resulting weak shear. Additionally, a layer of warm
   mid-level temperatures between 850 and 700 mb will result in slower
   parcel accelerations and could promote some over weakening of the
   ongoing storms. Despite these negative factors, the noted updraft
   persistence and strong instability will still result in the likely
   perseverance of this convective line into western portions of deep
   South Texas. The strong instability supports the potential for hail
   (particularly with initial updrafts) and the steep low-level lapse
   rates amidst a moist airmass support the threat for damaging
   water-loaded downbursts. Isolated and marginal nature of the threat
   are expected to preclude the need for a watch but convective trends
   will still be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Weiss.. 06/03/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27879987 28120007 28269975 27969914 27439875 26909882
               26799929 27319949 27629972 27879987 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2017
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