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Mesoscale Discussion 943
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MO AND WRN/CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081932Z - 082130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NERN MO
   AND WRN IL WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 1930Z DEPICTS A SFC
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN/CNTRL IL...MOST LIKELY A
   CONFLUENCE LINE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE
   FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY INCREASED
   IN INTENSITY. CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM
   INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID
   60S BEHIND A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OVER THE MCD AREA
   EARLIER. ENHANCED MID TO UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   35-45 KT. THIS SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG SHOULD
   SUPPORT MAINLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
   ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW
   AT THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40209225 40379156 40609073 40919004 41038958 40738898
               40128887 39279015 38969159 39269228 40209225 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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