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Mesoscale Discussion 943
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0943
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of upper Michigan and Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031948Z - 032045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon,
   with a few storms having the potential for damaging winds and a few
   instances of large hail.  Convective trends are being monitored for
   potential watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Gradually increasing forcing for ascent associated with
   a passing shortwave trough is yielding isolated convective
   development this afternoon across western upper Michigan. Visible
   satellite data also indicate growing cumulus underneath mid/upper
   clouds over portions of western Wisconsin, aided by weak surface
   convergence along/ahead of a cold front. To the south of ongoing
   cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the lower/mid 80s, with
   dew points in the lower/mid 60s, yielding upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE. Recent KDLH VWP data indicate adequate deep-layer shear,
   characterized by relatively straight hodographs. As such, storm
   splits and small bowing segments may evolve, with a deepening
   boundary layer enhancing the potential for damaging wind gusts.
   Additionally, a few instances of large hail will be possible.
   Convective trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Weiss.. 06/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46509063 46828983 46948844 46568766 46358732 45808714
               45508726 44488789 44088813 44038885 44239012 44989126
               45869123 46159086 46509063 

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