Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2017
Areas affected...Portions of upper Michigan and Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031948Z - 032045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon,
with a few storms having the potential for damaging winds and a few
instances of large hail. Convective trends are being monitored for
potential watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Gradually increasing forcing for ascent associated with
a passing shortwave trough is yielding isolated convective
development this afternoon across western upper Michigan. Visible
satellite data also indicate growing cumulus underneath mid/upper
clouds over portions of western Wisconsin, aided by weak surface
convergence along/ahead of a cold front. To the south of ongoing
cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the lower/mid 80s, with
dew points in the lower/mid 60s, yielding upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Recent KDLH VWP data indicate adequate deep-layer shear,
characterized by relatively straight hodographs. As such, storm
splits and small bowing segments may evolve, with a deepening
boundary layer enhancing the potential for damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, a few instances of large hail will be possible.
Convective trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 46509063 46828983 46948844 46568766 46358732 45808714
45508726 44488789 44088813 44038885 44239012 44989126
45869123 46159086 46509063