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Mesoscale Discussion 944
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KY INTO SOUTHERN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102040Z - 102215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY
   INCREASE ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTHEAST KY INTO SOUTHERN OH
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH INCREASING SEMI-DISCRETE
   STORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD
   ADVANCEMENT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHERN OH
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
   SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER...WITH A CORRESPONDING
   NORTHWARD-SHIFT OF MODEST INSTABILITY /500 J PER KG MLCAPE/
   OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST OH AS OF
   20Z. AIDED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PER
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MAY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KY/SOUTHERN OH THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38238516 38988490 39538431 39378283 38578239 38138298
               38318368 38238516 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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