MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PNHDL...SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161255Z - 161430Z
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE NERN GULF COAST AND INLAND
   ACROSS THE FL PNHDL TO PARTS OF SRN AL AND SWRN GA THROUGH THE
   MORNING AS LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THESE
   AREAS. CURRENTLY...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH
   TIME...THE SEVERE WIND THREAT FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   INCREASE.
   
   CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MESOLOW HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG PREFRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE ZONE LOCATED ACROSS SRN AL/MOBILE AREA. ENHANCED INFLOW
   OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE NERN GULF...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT AHEAD OF GULF MCS...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE FL
   PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
   MORNING GIVEN LACK OF INHIBITION AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   TLH SOUNDING INDICATES ABUNDANT MOISTURE...GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE
   RATES...AND WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTING MULTICELLULAR STORMS
   WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH APPROACH
   OF MID/UPPER WAVE AND POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING
   RESPECTIVELY. THUS...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WET MICRO-BURST/DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES AND A WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/16/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30678316 29508500 29628782 30048809 30458788 31258686
   31678603 32058446 31908332