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Mesoscale Discussion 945
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102048Z - 102145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY INTO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN
   SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS S-CNTRL WY IN RESPONSE TO A
   GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
   INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND AN ACCOMPANYING RIBBON OF ENHANCED
   MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   IS MEAGER...BUT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   PROFILE IS YIELDING MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   ESTIMATED AT 250-750 J/KG. WITH 30-40 KT OF WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
   POSITIONED OVERHEAD...TSTMS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING. DESPITE A WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW...20-30 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL TSTM
   ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND DCAPE VALUES
   AOA 1500 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...AND THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41070414 41070487 41130550 41850596 43100584 43380527
               43400409 43450340 43190299 41490290 41060333 41070414 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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