Mesoscale Discussion 0945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017
Areas affected...Portions of North Carolina and far southern
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041915Z - 042045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to briefly severe storms may be capable of
gusty downburst winds producing localized damage this afternoon.
However, a watch does not appear warranted.
DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon, aided by a weak impulse along the northern periphery of
mid-level ridging. Regional VWP data depict relatively weak flow
within the lower/middle troposphere, with winds generally 15-20 kt
or less. As such, overall storm organization should remain quite
limited. However, a very warm/moist boundary layer, combined with
some residual dry mid-level air (observed in 12Z GSO/RNK soundings),
is fostering an environment capable of occasional strong downburst
winds. Mesoanalysis data indicate a corridor of upwards of 1000 J/kg
of DCAPE ahead of a cluster of storms over central NC; therefore,
localized damaging gusts appear possible through early evening. This
threat will be further enhanced if merging storms can develop
organized trailing precipitation regions, although this seems
somewhat uncertain with stronger anvil-layer flow present.
Regardless, despite the threat for a few damaging gusts,
disorganized storm structures will preclude the need for a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35128085 35468137 35618141 35948138 36608115 36928077
37098013 36947919 36537846 35507843 34897893 34888001