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Mesoscale Discussion 945
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0945
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of North Carolina and far southern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041915Z - 042045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to briefly severe storms may be capable of
   gusty downburst winds producing localized damage this afternoon.
   However, a watch does not appear warranted.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have developed this
   afternoon, aided by a weak impulse along the northern periphery of
   mid-level ridging. Regional VWP data depict relatively weak flow
   within the lower/middle troposphere, with winds generally 15-20 kt
   or less. As such, overall storm organization should remain quite
   limited. However, a very warm/moist boundary layer, combined with
   some residual dry mid-level air (observed in 12Z GSO/RNK soundings),
   is fostering an environment capable of occasional strong downburst
   winds. Mesoanalysis data indicate a corridor of upwards of 1000 J/kg
   of DCAPE ahead of a cluster of storms over central NC; therefore,
   localized damaging gusts appear possible through early evening. This
   threat will be further enhanced if merging storms can develop
   organized trailing precipitation regions, although this seems
   somewhat uncertain with stronger anvil-layer flow present.
   Regardless, despite the threat for a few damaging gusts,
   disorganized storm structures will preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 06/04/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35128085 35468137 35618141 35948138 36608115 36928077
               37098013 36947919 36537846 35507843 34897893 34888001
               35128085 

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