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Mesoscale Discussion 945
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN IL...NWRN IND...AND FAR
   SWRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082032Z - 082200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN IL...NWRN IND...AND
   FAR SWRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THE OVERALL
   SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN
   IL ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SFC BOUNDARY...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE
   HAIL HAVING BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN LAKE COUNTY IL. SFC
   TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
   50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MCD AREA. 20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES
   MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. THE VWP FROM THE KLOT RADAR SHOWS A
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT...WITH 30 KT
   OF WLY FLOW AROUND 6 KM. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAKER
   COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SW...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT IS
   APPARENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THE LIMITED/MARGINAL
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT TOO ISOLATED FOR
   WW ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42448883 42468775 42468688 42318616 41988545 41258619
               40638721 40288881 40828938 41949035 42439008 42448883 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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