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Mesoscale Discussion 946
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0946
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042006Z - 042100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms this afternoon/early evening will be capable
   of marginally severe hail and strong, gusty winds. While convective
   trends are being monitored, watch issuance appears unlikely at this

   DISCUSSION...Along the far southeastern fringe of a mid-level
   trough, convection has developed within a weakly confluent low-level
   environment this afternoon. Strong surface heating and dew points
   generally in the upper 50s/lower 60s have promoted MLCAPE values
   around 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient for a few vigorous updrafts.
   Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates will support occasional
   strong surface gusts, with localized damage possible. However,
   uni-directional tropospheric flow and modest mid-level winds cast
   doubt upon the potential for greater storm organization this
   afternoon. In turn, while a few stronger cores may support gusty
   winds and marginally severe hail, the overall severe threat appears
   somewhat limited, and watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 06/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39978376 40138487 40648554 41158557 41478525 41498441
               41388224 41288119 41068098 40828093 40368122 40078209

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