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Mesoscale Discussion 946
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...CNTRL MD...NRN VA...DC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276...278...

   VALID 082046Z - 082145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 276...278...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH INITIALLY
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT ACROSS PARTS
   OF S-CNTRL PA. A TORNADO STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
   RISK MAY BE LOW.

   DISCUSSION...STORM-SCALE CONSOLIDATION HAS RAPIDLY OCCURRED IN THE
   PAST HALF HOUR WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MERGING WITH
   UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO ITS SWRN FLANK. THIS HAS YIELDED A SHORT-LINE
   SEGMENT FROM SCHUYLKILL TO FRANKLIN COUNTY PA AND ADDITIONAL MERGING
   IS PROBABLE WITH A DISCRETE LEFT-MOVING STORM OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY
   MD. THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE FALLS LIES AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION
   FROM THE DC AREA TOWARDS NJ WITH MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS. MODIFIED 18Z IAD RAOB SUGGESTS MODERATE BUOYANCY IS PRESENT
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH SRN EXTENT PER LWX/FCX VWP DATA. AS
   SUCH...PREDOMINANT RISK SHOULD CONSIST OF STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGE BUT A BRIEF TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
   WITH NRN EXTENT /MAINLY IN ERN PA/.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   40847627 40927525 40557513 38567709 37767886 37957934
               38657885 39937783 40497713 40847627 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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