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Mesoscale Discussion 947
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0947
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0428 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

   Areas affected...Central ID...Western MT...Far east-central OR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042128Z - 050000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage anticipated over the next
   few hours. Some severe is possible and convective trends will be
   monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent continues across the region,
   evidenced by increased cumulus development across far eastern OR.
   Leading edge of the better forcing is demarcated well by the
   high-level clouds extending across eastern WA and OR. Orographic
   lift is also supporting storm development across central ID and
   adjacent western MT. Storms in this area have remained sub-severe
   thus far, likely a result of meager instability. 

   Continued eastward progression of the approaching shortwave trough
   will gradually increase the forcing for ascent across the northern
   Rockies, where widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage
   is expected late this afternoon and into tonight. Additionally,
   cooler mid-level temperatures attendant to the shortwave will result
   in a modest increase in instability. Strengthening flow aloft will
   support long hodographs and moderate bulk shear. The resultant
   combination of modest instability and sufficient shear will foster
   an environment supportive of a few strong updrafts capable of hail
   and damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage
   precludes higher watch probabilities and convective trends will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45171724 46981584 47951384 47251199 43841397 43331634
               43911746 45171724 

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