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Mesoscale Discussion 947
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082154Z - 082330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
   REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A FEW CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MS AND NRN AL.
   INDEED...KGWX DATA HAVE ILLUSTRATED WEAK SUPERCELL/MULTICELL
   STRUCTURES AND SMALL POLARIMETRIC TBSS SIGNATURES ALOFT. THE
   COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN IMPULSE PASSING THE
   REGION...AND MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC
   TROUGH...HAS LED TO CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMPLE
   INSOLATION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER 70S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THE STRONGEST
   CELLS. HOWEVER...VEERED/WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST FLOW ALOFT
   ARE YIELDING FAIRLY MEAGER SRH AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EVIDENT IN KGWX
   VWP DATA/. AS SUCH...THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
   TRANSIENT IN NATURE...RESULTING IN A SMALL TEMPORAL/SPATIAL THREAT.
   THEREFORE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33499044 33679060 34389016 35018932 34948756 34988583
               34728559 34078571 33558662 33488798 33598955 33499044 

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Page last modified: June 08, 2015
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