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Mesoscale Discussion 947
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CNTRL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275...276...

   VALID 102214Z - 102345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   275...276...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THE
   MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE QLCS IN SERN KY/ERN TN INTO PARTS OF WRN
   NC AND SWRN VA/WV. LOCAL EXTENSIONS OF WW 275/276 HAVE BEEN
   COORDINATED AND PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE INTO ADJACENT
   CWA/S IS AROUND 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS EXTENDS FROM ERN KY TO WRN GA...WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE PORTION OF THE LINE PER MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY AND LOW-LEVEL
   VELOCITY SIGNATURES ACROSS SERN KY INTO ERN TN. THIS PORTION OF THE
   LINE HAS A MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO THE DEEP-LAYER SWLYS.
   OVERALL INTENSITY HAS LIKELY PEAKED AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN
   TO SURGE FARTHER E OF THE REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT AND DOWNSTREAM AIR
   MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY BUOYANT. STILL...FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THE
   LINE...AIDED BY 40-50 KT 700 MB WINDS IMMEDIATELY ALONG IT...IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR STRONG
   SURFACE WIND GUSTS UNTIL THE LINE DIMINISHES. THESE WILL REMAIN
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38608462 38878428 39108308 39088212 38838162 38388127
               37828102 37218108 36928128 36208209 34718310 34328385
               35198393 36858404 37838421 38608462 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2014
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