|Mesoscale Discussion 947|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017
Areas affected...Central ID...Western MT...Far east-central OR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 042128Z - 050000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage anticipated over the next
few hours. Some severe is possible and convective trends will be
monitored closely for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent continues across the region,
evidenced by increased cumulus development across far eastern OR.
Leading edge of the better forcing is demarcated well by the
high-level clouds extending across eastern WA and OR. Orographic
lift is also supporting storm development across central ID and
adjacent western MT. Storms in this area have remained sub-severe
thus far, likely a result of meager instability.
Continued eastward progression of the approaching shortwave trough
will gradually increase the forcing for ascent across the northern
Rockies, where widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage
is expected late this afternoon and into tonight. Additionally,
cooler mid-level temperatures attendant to the shortwave will result
in a modest increase in instability. Strengthening flow aloft will
support long hodographs and moderate bulk shear. The resultant
combination of modest instability and sufficient shear will foster
an environment supportive of a few strong updrafts capable of hail
and damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage
precludes higher watch probabilities and convective trends will be
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 45171724 46981584 47951384 47251199 43841397 43331634
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