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Mesoscale Discussion 948
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0948
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of south Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042214Z - 050015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible through
   early evening with a risk for damaging winds and perhaps hail.  A
   watch is not anticipated due to the localized nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were noted in regional radar composite
   imagery over south Texas this afternoon in the vicinity of a sea
   breeze boundary, likely augmented by weak ascent with a subtle
   mid-level impulse. A severe thunderstorm over southern Kennedy
   county was propagating south near the sea breeze boundary.
   Temperatures in the 90s and dew points mostly in the 70s have
   yielded moderate surface-based buoyancy.  Light southeast/south
   low-level flow beneath weak westerlies aloft have resulted in 35-40
   kts of westerly effective bulk shear.  The more intense storms will
   pose a risk for damaging winds as water loading within a high PW
   environment drives strong downdrafts.  Additional storm development
   is expected along the sea breeze and resulting from outflow boundary
   interactions.

   ..Bunting/Thompson.. 06/04/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26789741 26299725 25979727 25909742 26069767 26129807
               26299835 26809865 27339866 27799853 28169833 28309786
               28349730 28269693 27969696 27509726 27269734 26789741 

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