Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 948
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 948 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/SERN NY/FAR WRN MA AND CT

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 274...

   VALID 082312Z - 090045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 274 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NY...FAR
   WESTERN MA...AND PERHAPS AFFECT FAR WESTERN CT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2205Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
   QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM DELAWARE COUNTY NY TO
   LUZERNE COUNTY PA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 30
   KT.  ALTHOUGH THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE...TRENDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 274 HAS GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZED...GIVEN AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
   IN THE LOWER 60S.  THE QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE SUGGESTS
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN WLY 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 2-3.5 KM AGL AT BGM VAD. 
   HOWEVER...BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN MA/CT
   AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS PER OKX/BOX SUGGESTS A TORNADO
   THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS BAND OF STORMS ADVANCES EWD.

   GIVEN TIME OF DAY WITH THE ONGOING STORMS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
   EASTERN EXTENT OF WW 274 AROUND 000Z...THE CURRENT SPATIAL COVERAGE
   OF WW 274 SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
   INTENSITY WHEN THEY REACH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND.  ALTHOUGH HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO BE SLOWER WITH THIS STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...THE TRENDS IN THESE MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD
   DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 09/00Z.

   ..PETERS.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42707291 42107302 41937336 41517352 41437400 41397441
               40917614 41297627 42087536 42477492 42477425 42707291 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 09, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities