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Mesoscale Discussion 949
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TN...WRN VA...AND WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...

   VALID 082224Z - 090000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
   INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DOWNSTREAM WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS ILLUSTRATE SEVERAL
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION NEAR THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS AND POINTS WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A 51-KT GUST
   RECORDED AT 2153Z AT KTRI. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE
   CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST OVER NC...SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A NWWD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING IMPULSE ALOFT IS
   WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER LATEST
   MESO-ANALYSIS/ TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND WITH
   RELATIVELY MEAGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /E.G. 6-KM WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS
   IN LATEST KGSP VWP/...SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION ON A LARGE
   SPATIAL SCALE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW 277. AS
   SUCH...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
   CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
   NONETHELESS...MERGING COLD POOLS/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AMIDST A
   MOIST/WELL-MIXED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
   WINDS GUSTS THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37057852 35747955 35148100 35218149 35058310 35028437
               35118570 36178430 36638321 37088187 37388075 37667905
               37637838 37057852 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2015
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