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Mesoscale Discussion 949
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY / SERN MT / WRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...

   VALID 102254Z - 110000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT MAY INCREASE THIS
   EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.  SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
   HIGHEST OVER NERN WY DURING THE NEXT 30-90 MINUTES.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF WY AND A LOW 50 MI NNW CPR.  A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WY THIS EVENING AND AID IN
   MAINTAINING A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  RADAR MOSAIC
   SHOWS SEVERAL POCKETS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
   NOTABLY OF WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR THE JOHNSON/CAMPBELL COUNTY LINE IN
   NERN WY.  BACKED ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING A
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH RECENT STRONG LOWER TO MID-LEVEL ROTATION. 
   AROUND 20 DEG TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND A LONG HODOGRAPH WILL LEND A
   WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO A LARGE
   HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE STORM ENTERING CAMPBELL
   COUNTY.  THE SEVERE THREAT FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS SPORADIC LARGE
   HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WITH TIME THIS EVENING
   AS COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE AND UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO A SMALL MCS
   AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WRN SD LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..SMITH.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45430850 46430714 45960331 45440197 44680187 43860246
               43200377 43180581 44160781 45430850 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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