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Mesoscale Discussion 949
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0949
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

   Areas affected...Southern New York...Northeast Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051632Z - 051900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible this afternoon
   across parts of southern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania. A
   few strong wind gusts and hail may occur but the activity is
   expected to remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
   south-central New York. A corridor of low-level moisture is present
   ahead of the surface low from central Pennsylvania northward into
   central New York where surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F.
   Although the airmass has been slow to destabilize, surface
   temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 60s F. This is
   contributing to a narrow corridor of instability with the RAP
   estimated MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In addition, water vapor imagery
   shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes with a subtle lead
   impulse moving through the central Appalachians. This feature along
   with continued surface heating should help maintain convective
   development across southern New York over the next several hours.
   Convection may also develop west-southwestward into northern
   Pennsylvania later this afternoon as is suggested by the HRRR. The
   shear environment is sampled well by the Binghamton WSR-88D VWP
   which shows 0-6 km shear of 55-60 kt and directional shear in the
   boundary layer. This should support a marginal severe threat. A few
   damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly with short bowing line
   segments. Hail may also occur with the stronger updrafts.

   ..Broyles.. 06/05/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42937578 42077765 41517727 41327552 41377376 42777383

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