|Mesoscale Discussion 949|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017
Areas affected...Southern New York...Northeast Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051632Z - 051900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible this afternoon
across parts of southern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania. A
few strong wind gusts and hail may occur but the activity is
expected to remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
south-central New York. A corridor of low-level moisture is present
ahead of the surface low from central Pennsylvania northward into
central New York where surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F.
Although the airmass has been slow to destabilize, surface
temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 60s F. This is
contributing to a narrow corridor of instability with the RAP
estimated MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In addition, water vapor imagery
shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes with a subtle lead
impulse moving through the central Appalachians. This feature along
with continued surface heating should help maintain convective
development across southern New York over the next several hours.
Convection may also develop west-southwestward into northern
Pennsylvania later this afternoon as is suggested by the HRRR. The
shear environment is sampled well by the Binghamton WSR-88D VWP
which shows 0-6 km shear of 55-60 kt and directional shear in the
boundary layer. This should support a marginal severe threat. A few
damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly with short bowing line
segments. Hail may also occur with the stronger updrafts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42937578 42077765 41517727 41327552 41377376 42777383
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