MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0658 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN KS...CENTRAL-ERN OK PANHANDLE...ERN
   TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...

   VALID 032358Z - 040200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN
   ORGANIZATION...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING PAST HOUR...MAINLY OVER
   PORTIONS SWRN KS AND OK PANHANDLE BETWEEN DDC-GUY.  THIS AREA OF
   CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING COMPLEX
   MOVING SEWD THEN SWD OVER PORTIONS ERN PANHANDLES AND WRN OK THROUGH
   EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCNL HAIL.  MEANWHILE ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ALONG TX
   PANHANDLE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SPOTTY SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
   ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF GLD...NEAR
   INTERSECTION OF DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN KS CONVECTION
   MENTIONED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 947.  LEE TROUGHING REMAINS BACK
   IN ERN CO AND INTO WRN TX PANHANDLE.  DRYLINE EXTENDS SSEWD NEAR LBL
   THEN SWD PAST PPA TO DONLEY COUNTY TX.  LITTLE ADDITIONAL EWD MOTION
   OF DRYLINE IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE EVENING RETROGRESSION ACROSS
   PANHANDLES...LOCALLY MODULATED BY OUTFLOW FROM AFOREMENTIONED
   CONVECTION.  THAT ACTIVITY PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1.25 INCHES DIAMETER
   IN SEWARD COUNTY KS AT 2250Z.  

   HOWEVER...PRIMARY SVR CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO WIND WITH
   TIME...AS AGGREGATED COLD POOL DEVELOPS.  LBL AWOS MEASURED 65-KT
   GUST AT 2335Z...WHICH MAY INDICATE BEGINNING OF COLD-POOL DOMINANCE
   OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD PRODUCE
   STRENGTHENING FORCED ASCENT OF AIR MASS INVOF MOIST AXIS...ANALYZED
   AT 2330Z INVOF OK BORDER WITH ERN TX PANHANDLE.  W OF THAT MOIST
   AXIS AND ALONG/E OF DRYLINE...STG SFC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED MODEL
   SOUNDINGS.  SEWD/SWD TURN OF TSTM CLUSTER IS FAVORED DUE TO
   COMBINATION OF 
   1. STRENGTHENING CINH AND WEAKENING BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
   NRN OK AND SRN KS...AND
   2. NWLY ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS...WITH
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY IN 40-50 KT RANGE OVER MOST OF
   AREA.

   ..EDWARDS.. 06/03/2013


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34730099 35930140 36730171 37770150 38159999 37589859
               35989808 34509818 34730099