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Mesoscale Discussion 950
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0950
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

   Areas affected...Deep South TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051830Z - 052100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts possible as
   thunderstorm coverage increases this afternoon. Convective trends
   across the region will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Strong instability continues to build across deep south
   TX with temperatures already in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints
   in the upper 60s to low 70s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is
   around 2500 J/kg across much of the region, with little to no
   convective inhibition remaining. This erosion of the convective
   inhibition sample on the 12Z BRO and CRP soundings is further
   evidenced by the increasing cu field noted on recent visible
   imagery.

   Modest forcing for ascent (associated with a weak perturbation
   rounding the western periphery of the upper low) will continue to
   interact with this unstable environment over the next few hours,
   likely supporting an increase in both thunderstorm coverage and
   strength. Additionally, slightly stronger mid-level flow through the
   base of the upper low will contribute to stronger bulk shear and the
   potential for updraft organization. These stronger, more organized
   storms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging
   winds gusts. Limited spatial extent of the threat precludes higher
   watch probabilities but convective trends across the region will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26799915 27559900 27849822 27509747 26189720 25959747
               26359882 26799915 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2017
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