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Mesoscale Discussion 950
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102349Z - 110115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK WARM
   FRONT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE.

   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK WARM FRONT AROUND 25
   N SLO TO 25 S BMG. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST SW OF
   BMG HAS HAD WEAK ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES ON RADAR AND APPARENT TORNADO
   REPORTS PER WFO IND. WITH THIS ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 200 M2/S2 PER IND VWP DATA
   HAS CLEARLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO RISK. STILL...THE
   LONGEVITY OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH THE BULK OF TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AOB 6 DEG
   C/KM.

   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   39468642 39298611 38928628 38658657 38518714 38638735
               39008717 39438686 39468642 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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