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Mesoscale Discussion 951
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082310Z - 090045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS/STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
   RELATIVELY SMALL AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HAS
   SUPPORTED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
   THIS AREA ON THE FRINGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING HAS YIELDED MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
   30-35 KTS IS ALSO ENCOURAGING UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. WHILE THE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL BUOYANCY FAVOR EFFICIENT
   HAIL GROWTH IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NM WHERE
   THE BEST INTERSECTION OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS EXISTS.
   INDEED...QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ACCUMULATING TO 2-INCH DEPTH WAS
   REPORTED IN DES MOINES NM AT 2230Z. NONETHELESS...WITH A LACK OF
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL /AS WELL AS
   A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/ SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL
   EXTENT. THEREFORE...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 06/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34330506 34440543 34700552 35500516 36760464 36930429
               36830316 35620311 34410328 34260438 34330506 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2015
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