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Mesoscale Discussion 951
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0951
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast Kentucky...Ohio...Southwest
   Pennsylvania...Northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051900Z - 052130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat appears likely to develop across
   the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. Hail and strong wind gusts
   will be possible as storms gradually intensify over the next few
   hours. Weather watch issuance is not expected although the situation
   will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
   from far northwest Pennsylvania extending west-southwestward into
   central Ohio and central Indiana. To the south of the front, a moist
   airmass is in place with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
   70s F. As surface temperatures have warmed today, a narrow corridor
   of weak instability has developed across southern Indiana and
   south-central Ohio. At the same time, a capping inversion has
   weakened across the region which has allowed scattered convection to
   initiate. This convection is forecast to gradually increase in
   coverage moving southeastward toward the Ohio River this afternoon.
   The wind shear environment is sampled well by the Wilmington, Ohio
   WSR-88D VWP which shows 0-6 km shear of 30 kt along with 35 to 45 kt
   of flow in the mid-levels. This along with steepening low-level
   lapse rates may support a marginal wind damage threat with the
   stronger multicells. Hail may also occur with the stronger updrafts.

   ..Broyles.. 06/05/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37988445 37978382 38628217 39288057 39637979 40387939
               40897961 41028036 40868235 40568332 39778433 38958510
               38458514 38098488 37988445 

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