MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA / PARTS OF NERN NC AND DELMARVA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 051749Z - 051845Z
   
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED REGARDING A CONDITIONAL/NON-ZERO TORNADO
   THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NERN NC/SERN
   VA/DELMARVA.  A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED MCV STEADILY PROGRESSING NEWD
   OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL NC TOWARDS SERN VA.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
   DEPICTS A SW-NE ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
   FROM A 1006 LOW INVOF 35 MI W RDU NEWD TO SBY.  RECENT SINGLE SITE
   RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYED WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH A FEW DEVELOPING
   SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SERN VA.  
   
   ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
   AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEG F/ HAS LED
   TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /UP TO 2500 J/KG SBCAPE/ ACCORDING
   TO MODIFIED 12Z WAL RAOB FOR 80/70 SURFACE CONDITIONS.  ADEQUATELY
   STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW PER INTERPOLATED AREA RAOB/VWP DATA MAY
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION IF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
   DEVELOP...PERHAPS SUPPORTING AN ISOLD TORNADO.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/05/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...
   
   LAT...LON   36277826 36427834 37397715 38267549 38247527 37997512
               36947627 36137798 36277826