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Mesoscale Discussion 952
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0705 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN/N-CNTRL AR...AND SWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090005Z - 090100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS CONTINUES...AND WW 275 HAS BEEN EXTENDED TIL 01Z ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE WFO MEG CWA. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND REPORT IS POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE WW.
   HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT PRECLUDES
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 1-MIN GOES-14 VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   CCA EWD TO NEAR MKL. WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT SKIRTING THE REGION TO
   THE NE...WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALSO AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT.
   TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG.
   MOREOVER...RECENT KNQA VWP AND MESO-ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST AROUND
   30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
   THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE-HAIL REPORTS...AS WELL AS
   STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO AMPLE SFC HEATING/MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...WW 275 HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME
   UNTIL 01Z OVER THE WFO MEG CWA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WEAKENS SOME TO THE WEST...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
   AN ISOLATED LARGE-HAIL REPORT OVER N-CNTRL/NERN AR AS WELL...BUT THE
   LIMITED TEMPORAL/AREAL NATURE PRECLUDES ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.
   FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOULD BE
   DOWNWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...AS INSOLATION WANES AND FORCING
   FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 06/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35839287 35879035 35768829 35038864 35169105 35309239
               35839287 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2015
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