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Mesoscale Discussion 952
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110241Z - 110415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN SD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.  THE MCS MAY POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF THE MCS MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STALLED FRONTAL
   ZONE FROM N-CNTRL SD SWWD AND INTERSECTING A BROKEN/DEVELOPING
   CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS.  THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
   HAS LED TO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S AMIDST LOWER 50S
   DEWPOINTS.  A 45 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /0213Z/ MEASURED AT KRAP.
   MODIFYING THE 00Z RAP RAOB FOR 02Z SURFACE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
   DEVELOPING MCS YIELDS AROUND 1400 J/KG MLCAPE.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE
   ERN MT/ERN WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND
   CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH AND ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND
   INTO A MCS AND STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD ACT TO PARTIALLY OFFSET INCREASING CINH.  AS A
   RESULT...SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY
   ENCROACH FROM THE WEST INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY.  UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS REGARDING THE ERN EDGE OF THE SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT AND
   ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO E-CNTRL SD.

   ..SMITH/KERR.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43040118 45920198 45939968 43019957 43040118 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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