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Mesoscale Discussion 953
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WESTERN VA/FAR EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF
   WV/EASTERN OH TO SOUTHWEST PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111625Z - 111830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN
   VA/EASTERN KY AND MUCH OF WV TO EASTERN OH/SOUTHWEST PA. THE REGION
   IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE MIDWEST...WHILE A RIBBON OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERLIES MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY AND
   UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. WHILE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
   PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT MIDDAY...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP PER 12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 70S AND SOME
   LOWER 80S. IN THE PRESENCE OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THIS WILL
   ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND/JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG THIS
   AFTERNOON. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ARE LIKELY
   TO LEAD TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR WESTERN VA/FAR EASTERN KY INTO WV/EASTERN
   OH AND WESTERN PA. THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF MODERATELY
   STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
   WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37348287 40618146 39847995 39237950 38437943 38017950
               37168032 36498199 37348287 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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