|Mesoscale Discussion 953|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017
Areas affected...Northern Plains...central High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052201Z - 052300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gust and hail are possible through
the evening across portions of the northern Plains and central High
Plains. Watch not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A warm and deeply mixed boundary layer exists ahead of
the cold front approaching the western Dakotas. The airmass is only
weakly unstable but the forcing for ascent along the frontal
boundary should still result in storm development. The strongest
storms are most likely across northeastern/east-central WY and
western South Dakota where the best alignment of shear, forcing for
ascent, and modest instability exists. Only isolated storm coverage
is anticipated but any storms that do develop could produce hail and
damaging wind gusts.
Farther south into southeast WY and the adjacent NE Panhandle,
storms have been largely anchored to the higher terrain but recent
radar imagery has shown a bit more tendency for storms persisting
once they move off the terrain. Expectation is for storms to persist
across the high terrain for the next hour or two before eventually
moving eastward/northeastward. Deeply mixed downstream environment
would foster an environment favorable for strong wind gusts. Some
isolated hail is also possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43120541 45980426 48040356 47860245 45360275 41820310
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