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Mesoscale Discussion 953
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0953
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

   Areas affected...Northern Plains...central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052201Z - 052300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gust and hail are possible through
   the evening across portions of the northern Plains and central High
   Plains. Watch not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A warm and deeply mixed boundary layer exists ahead of
   the cold front approaching the western Dakotas. The airmass is only
   weakly unstable but the forcing for ascent along the frontal
   boundary should still result in storm development. The strongest
   storms are most likely across northeastern/east-central WY and
   western South Dakota where the best alignment of shear, forcing for
   ascent, and modest instability exists. Only isolated storm coverage
   is anticipated but any storms that do develop could produce hail and
   damaging wind gusts. 

   Farther south into southeast WY and the adjacent NE Panhandle,
   storms have been largely anchored to the higher terrain but recent
   radar imagery has shown a bit more tendency for storms persisting
   once they move off the terrain. Expectation is for storms to persist
   across the high terrain for the next hour or two before eventually
   moving eastward/northeastward. Deeply mixed downstream environment
   would foster an environment favorable for strong wind gusts. Some
   isolated hail is also possible.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   43120541 45980426 48040356 47860245 45360275 41820310
               41590518 43120541 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2017
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