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Mesoscale Discussion 954
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0821 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN VA INTO NWRN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

   VALID 170121Z - 170215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS OVER ECNTRL VA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE MOST
   ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT...AND THESE ARE MOVING INTO WW 262. STORMS
   CROSSING INTO WRN MD SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 02Z AS THEY MOVE
   INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME. STORMS MOVING INTO SWRN VA MAY CONTINUE
   TO POSE SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL FOR 1-2 HOURS BEYOND
   02Z...AND WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO RNK CWA IF
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...00Z RAOB FROM RNK INDICATES A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
   ATMOSPHERE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER ALONG WITH
   40-50 KT WNWLY WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS...BUT STORMS CROSSING INTO THIS REGIME MAY BEGIN TO
   EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WHICH COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY 03-04Z.
   FARTHER NORTH...THE STORMS CROSSING INTO MD FROM NERN VA MAY REMAIN
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
   SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER INTO MD AND DEEPER INTO
   A MORE STABLE REGIME. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
   STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH ECNTRL VA SHOULD REMAIN CONTAINED IN WW
   262 NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

   ..DIAL.. 06/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   37348140 37628036 38107811 39057739 39127636 38157664
               36957916 36698040 36738145 37178194 37348140 

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Page last modified: June 17, 2016
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