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Mesoscale Discussion 954
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/WRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091636Z - 091830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGE
   ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY SCATTERED
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHIFTING E FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE
   PAST HOUR AHEAD OF A MODERATE-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED
   OVER WRN NY. WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY OVER ERN NY...POCKETS OF ROBUST HEATING SHOULD YIELD A
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AMIDST 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF ONLY
   AROUND 5.5-6 DEG C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SLOW STRENGTHENING IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY LIKELY PEAKING OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY TO WRN
   NEW ENGLAND IN LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIE ON
   THE FRINGE OF STRONGER 700-500 MB SWLYS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST. BUT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND UPDRAFT CONSOLIDATION SHOULD AID IN
   A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS PRIMARILY PRODUCING ISOLATED
   STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   43617479 43877442 44037372 43967302 43657239 42947247
               42247269 41277326 40937409 41067482 41417534 41967509
               43617479 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2015
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