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Mesoscale Discussion 954
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OF
   MD/NORTHERN VA/DC/WV PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111732Z - 111930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS OF
   MD/NORTHERN VA/WV PANHANDLE AND THE DC METRO VICINITY. A WATCH IS
   LIKELY BY AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...A
   ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COINCIDES WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN PA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
   EASTERN MD. THE AIR MASS ALONG /AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF/ THIS
   BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OCCUR /MIDDLE AND SOME UPPER 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS/. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL
   GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE
   TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND ADJACENT MD/WV...BUT AT LEAST 1000
   J/KG MLCAPE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MUCH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. BENEATH A BELT
   OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GENERAL
   PREVALENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   MAXIMIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
   WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ANY STORMS
   DEVELOPING NEAR AND/OR CROSSING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
   WILL LIKELY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH CORRESPONDING
   POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41038016 41137913 40507877 40177798 39767690 39257662
               38627689 38577748 39227963 39768002 41038016 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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