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Mesoscale Discussion 955
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111825Z - 112000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PORTIONS OF VA ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VA EARLY
   AFTERNOON...SEMI-FOCUSED ON VARIOUS BOUNDARIES INCLUDING COASTAL SEA
   BREEZES IN ADDITION TO OTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PIEDMONT/WESTERN
   CAROLINAS. THESE STORMS GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH ONLY SUBTLE HEIGHT
   FALLS AND WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/ IN MOST AREAS /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY STRONGER INTO
   VA/. AMPLE HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A GENERAL
   PREVALENCE OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE YIELDING AS MUCH
   AS 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ESPECIALLY IN PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS.
   MULTICELLS WILL BE COMMON GIVEN THE AMPLE BUOYANCY/MODEST SHEAR WITH
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERIODIC BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
   GSP...

   LAT...LON   33768215 35398218 36208073 37547922 37487730 35967639
               35087713 34227889 33298026 33768215 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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