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Mesoscale Discussion 955
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092021Z - 092215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS MIGHT FORM OVER THE COTEAU DES
   PRAIRIES INTO EARLY EVENING WITH RISKS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT FROM NWRN
   MN TO NEAR ABR SWWD TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH ACROSS E-CNTRL TO S-CNTRL SD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
   REACHED THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S NEAR/BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH
   AGITATED HIGH-BASED CU INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN/E-CNTRL SD.
   WITH THE REGION LYING ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLYS AND
   GIVEN 35-45 DEG F SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...THIS
   CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP E/SEWD INTO EARLY EVENING. STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES/DEEP AND WARM INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH HAIL
   SECONDARY. THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
   WITH MOST CAMS /OUTSIDE OF THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE HRRR/ SUGGESTING
   THAT STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO REMAIN SUSTAINED...PERHAPS DUE TO WEAK
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND LARGELY ONLY MIDDLE 50S SURFACE
   DEW POINTS OVER THE WARM SECTOR.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45369726 45839596 45609471 45209430 44379419 43939443
               43609507 43549699 43839814 44509940 44749946 44969897
               45369726 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2015
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