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Mesoscale Discussion 956
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...FAR SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 112005Z - 112100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE ACROSS ERN CO AND EVENTUALLY WRN KS AND SWRN NEB THROUGH
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS ONGOING CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HR.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED AND GENERALLY
   DISORGANIZED TSTMS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT RANGE
   QUICKLY TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO. MODERATE
   MIDLEVEL WLYS /20-30 KT/ ARE SUPPORTING STORM SUSTENANCE OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER IS SUPPORTING GENERATION OF SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY MORE MOIST BUT
   WARM POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WHERE STRONG HEATING IS YIELDING AROUND
   500-1500 J/KG WITH PERHAPS WEAK INHIBITION STILL IN PLACE.
   HOWEVER...WITH AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL CO...AND
   THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERAL OUTFLOW/STORM INTERACTIONS...CONGEALING
   OF TSTMS INTO CLUSTERS AND EVENTUALLY INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
   SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY ARE LIKELY TO BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND WILL
   LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40690294 40820197 40640051 39820006 39000033 37990178
               38150308 38890347 39330339 40130317 40690294 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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