|
| Mesoscale Discussion 956 |
|
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN
OK...PORTIONS NW TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 042206Z - 042300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SVR TSTM THREAT IS INCREASING...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...WEST TX MESONET AND CONVENTIONAL SFC DATA...ALONG WITH
LOW-REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOPS...SHOWS PROMINENT AND HEAT-AIDED
MESOLOW OVER BRISCOE COUNTY TX. DRYLINE ARCS NWD TO INTERSECTION
WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONT OVER HANSFORD COUNTY TX...AND SEWD FROM
LOW ACROSS PORTIONS MOTLEY/KENT/SCURRY COUNTY TX SWWD TOWARD BIG
BEND REGION. PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS DRYLINE SEGMENT RESIDES AHEAD
OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO VERY HOT THERMAL AXIS WHERE TEMPS W OF
DRYLINE ARE IN 100-108 F RANGE. DRYLINE MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER E
IN NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT SHOULD RETREAT THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...RELICT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS WAS BECOMING
DIFFUSE...BUT STILL EVIDENT FROM ABOUT VGT-SPS-LTS THEN ARCHING WWD
AND SWD INTO MESOLOW. CONVERGENCE AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED ALONG THAT SEGMENT OF OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN SW OK AND NW TX...AS WELL AS AROUND LOW ITSELF...BUT
ALSO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG DRYLINE FROM JUST S OF LOW NWD
ACROSS NRN PANHANDLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GREATEST BUOYANCY IS
EVIDENT NEAR MOIST AXIS OVER NWRN OK...WHERE MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG
IS SUPPORTED BY MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS PER OK MESONET...WITH
AWOS READINGS BEING TOO HIGH. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LIFT IS DISPLACED
FROM HIGHEST CAPE/WEAKEST CINH FOR NOW...PRIND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
INVOF LOW/DRYLINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD INTO
FAVORABLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...AMIDST AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE 30-40
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
LATER THIS EVENING...COMPLEX OF TSTMS MAY MOVE SEWD FROM WW 276 INTO
THIS REGION AS WELL...REF WW 276 AND SUBSEQUENT/ACCOMPANYING
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THAT SCENARIO.
..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/04/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32740091 33760076 34560120 35330161 36800193 36940092
36979976 36929872 35569843 33859831 33039879 32619947
32740091
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|