MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN
   OK...PORTIONS NW TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 042206Z - 042300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR TSTM THREAT IS INCREASING...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
   MUCH OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...WEST TX MESONET AND CONVENTIONAL SFC DATA...ALONG WITH
   LOW-REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOPS...SHOWS PROMINENT AND HEAT-AIDED
   MESOLOW OVER BRISCOE COUNTY TX.  DRYLINE ARCS NWD TO INTERSECTION
   WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONT OVER HANSFORD COUNTY TX...AND SEWD FROM
   LOW ACROSS PORTIONS MOTLEY/KENT/SCURRY COUNTY TX SWWD TOWARD BIG
   BEND REGION.  PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS DRYLINE SEGMENT RESIDES AHEAD
   OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO VERY HOT THERMAL AXIS WHERE TEMPS W OF
   DRYLINE ARE IN 100-108 F RANGE.  DRYLINE MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER E
   IN NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT SHOULD RETREAT THIS EVENING. 
   MEANWHILE...RELICT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS WAS BECOMING
   DIFFUSE...BUT STILL EVIDENT FROM ABOUT VGT-SPS-LTS THEN ARCHING WWD
   AND SWD INTO MESOLOW.  CONVERGENCE AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS SHOULD
   REMAIN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED ALONG THAT SEGMENT OF OLD OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN SW OK AND NW TX...AS WELL AS AROUND LOW ITSELF...BUT
   ALSO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG DRYLINE FROM JUST S OF LOW NWD
   ACROSS NRN PANHANDLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT.  GREATEST BUOYANCY IS
   EVIDENT NEAR MOIST AXIS OVER NWRN OK...WHERE MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG
   IS SUPPORTED BY MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS PER OK MESONET...WITH
   AWOS READINGS BEING TOO HIGH.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST LIFT IS DISPLACED
   FROM HIGHEST CAPE/WEAKEST CINH FOR NOW...PRIND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
   INVOF LOW/DRYLINE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE EWD AND SEWD INTO
   FAVORABLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...AMIDST AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE 30-40
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

   LATER THIS EVENING...COMPLEX OF TSTMS MAY MOVE SEWD FROM WW 276 INTO
   THIS REGION AS WELL...REF WW 276 AND SUBSEQUENT/ACCOMPANYING
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THAT SCENARIO.

   ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/04/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32740091 33760076 34560120 35330161 36800193 36940092
               36979976 36929872 35569843 33859831 33039879 32619947
               32740091