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Mesoscale Discussion 957
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

   Areas affected...Western KS and east-central to southeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062048Z - 062315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible this
   afternoon into the early evening across western KS into east-central
   and southeast CO.  Locally strong wind gusts and some hail will be
   the primary severe risks.  Given a low probability for storm
   organization, WW issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and cloud-top cooling
   (per IR satellite imagery) indicated thunderstorms continued to
   develop this afternoon in vicinity of a couple surface boundaries
   analyzed from southeast CO into northwest KS, and then southeast
   into south-central KS.  This activity has developed within a
   moderately unstable environment, though bulk shear is relatively
   weak resulting in pulse-type storms, and a limited potential for
   supercells.  Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) and the weak
   bulk shear suggest a low probability for severe hail, while DCAPE
   around 1000 J/kg per objective analyses suggests strong wind gusts
   should be the greatest severe-weather threat.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 06/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37720289 38530269 39140183 39410100 39679982 39059951
               37469923 37319971 37740054 37750112 37580196 37390231
               37380264 37720289 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2017
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