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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN NEB INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335...336...
VALID 060722Z - 060745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
335...336...CONTINUES.
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED INTO PARTS OF NERN KS...NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LARGE FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB. SURFACE
ANALYSES INDICATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ATTENDANT TO A LEAD TSTM OVER
JEFFERSON COUNTY NEB...AND A SECOND LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM
NANCE-HALL COUNTIES HAVE AUGMENTED THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
TSTM...STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO REACH THE SURFACE /PER RECENT
MEASURED 57 KT WIND GUST AT GRI AT 0644Z/. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NEB AND AN APPARENT MCV
FORMING WITH THIS MCS AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO NEB/MID MO VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SRN IA/NRN MO...THE STRONG
LLJ WILL FEED THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY LOCATED IN SRN NEB/CENTRAL KS. HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN LIKELY...WITH THIS THREAT REACHING SWRN
IA/NERN KS/NWRN MO AROUND 10Z.
THE LLJ AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO ERN KS BY 12Z. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG THE SWRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS INTO NERN
KS AND PARTS OF NWRN MO.
..PETERS.. 06/06/2009
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 38869568 39039692 39839769 40299896 41059886 41769883
41819702 41709570 41259424 40509342 39779314 38869568
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