Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 957
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 957 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI/FAR
   WESTERN UPPER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092332Z - 100100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
   NORTHEAST MN WITH THE AREA OF STORMS SPREADING INTO PARTS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL MN TO NORTHWEST AND NRN WI TO FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. 
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.  A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN
   AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL TO
   WEST-CENTRAL MN.  MEANWHILE...TWO WARM FRONTS INTERSECT THE COLD
   FRONT IN WRN ITASCA COUNTY MN AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER WITH EACH EXTENDING SEWD...THE FORMER THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL MN
   TO CENTRAL WI AND THE LATTER EXTENDING THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD TO
   WESTERN UPPER MI.  DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...STRONG
   ABOVE-NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG.  A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY/ AND AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF STRONGER
   W/NWLY WINDS /50+ KT/ WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO NRN MN THIS
   EVENING REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

   TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATED AN INCREASE IN DEEPER CU AND A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
   TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 50+ KT MIDLEVEL JET AND
   IMPULSE SPREADS SEWD ACROSS NORTHEAST MN.  THE NRN EXTENT OF GREATER
   BUOYANCY/WARM SECTOR IS PRESENT INTO THIS REGION OF NRN-NERN MN. 
   THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /AT LEAST 7 C PER KM/ SPREADING E/SEWD ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT SUGGESTS BOTH MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A TORNADO THREAT NOT RULED OUT AS
   SRH INCREASES GIVEN A BACKING AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 06/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46969411 47839372 48189283 47879154 47619115 46789007
               46388955 45698954 45228982 45029077 45429238 45939343
               46969411 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 10, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities