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Mesoscale Discussion 957
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112014Z - 112145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
   HAIL/POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL LOWER MI.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED/INCREASED OVER THE PAST HALF
   HOUR ACROSS LOWER MI...ROUGHLY 30 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE GRAND
   RAPIDS AREA AS OF 2010Z. THIS STORM IS OCCURRING NEAR A
   NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT...IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
   NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. RELATIVELY
   LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL LOWER MI. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST
   RELATIVE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J PER KG
   MLCAPE/ AND LOW-LEVEL SRH EXISTS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43248533 43498485 43678409 43588322 42828347 42768432
               42798525 43248533 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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