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Mesoscale Discussion 958
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND...W-CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112036Z - 112200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE
   MAGNITUDE/COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW
   OWING TO A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z PLACES A SFC LOW APPROXIMATELY 30
   E ABR...WITH AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PROTRUDING EWD TO
   NEAR BRD...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR MHE. WIDESPREAD
   CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
   AFTERNOON N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN/CNTRL MN...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE IN THE LOW-MID
   60S F. STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN MN AND ERN SD.
   HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA OWING
   TO MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. MID-50S TO LOW-60S F
   DEWPOINTS/ AND MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING ESTIMATED
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 

   WHILE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN
   BY LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING A NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE
   IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE SFC
   LOW AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS SERN ND
   RECENTLY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 

   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION GIVEN ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
   THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THESE THREATS MAY BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   NEED FOR A WW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45079832 45799959 46209986 46499957 46749873 46689738
               46169457 45039517 44279658 43789731 43579776 43619805
               44109824 45079832 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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