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Mesoscale Discussion 958
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN/SERN AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...

   VALID 100059Z - 100230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD THROUGH
   SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MN IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTER ABOUT
   02Z...AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION SHOULD
   SUPPORT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS ADVANCE
   TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0050Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN /ANOKA AND SRN MCLEOD/NRN SIBLEY
   COUNTIES/ INTO SOUTHWEST MN /COTTONWOOD TO ROCK COUNTIES/...AND THEN
   WWD THROUGH SERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD /LYMAN COUNTY...JUST WEST OF WW
   281/.  THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
   S/SE EXTENT OF A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WHICH
   EXTENDED FROM SRN SD INTO CENTRAL MN.  ALTHOUGH STRONGER EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR IS LOCATED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NERN MN TO THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES...SUFFICIENT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
   ADDITIONAL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THESE
   SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED /UNTIL AROUND 02Z/ AS
   ONGOING STORMS REACH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN SRN MN AND AS
   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION INCREASES...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
   UPDRAFTS.  THE STORMS IN SWRN MN/SERN SD MAY PERSIST THE LONGEST
   WITH SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO NERN NEB AND NWRN
   IA WHERE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER...BUT INCREASING SBCINH HERE TOO
   WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.

   ..PETERS.. 06/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43889772 43989673 44239528 44679464 45199362 45459346
               45449259 45099265 44349363 43519472 43079544 42699642
               42609751 42939800 43889772 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2015
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