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Mesoscale Discussion 959
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND W-CNTRL TX...FAR SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 112046Z - 112145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT
   FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A GRADUALLY INCREASING
   CU/CB FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE DAVIS MTNS OF TX NWD INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF ERN NM...OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE/JET
   STREAK MOVING ACROSS CNTRL AZ/NM. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
   OBSERVED ALONG/W OF A LEE SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
   OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS AND INTO THE TRANS-PECOS...WITH
   SOME LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 100 F. AS A RESULT...VERY DEEP
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AMIDST MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING
   THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
   WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FORCING...EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IS STILL
   SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
   /INCLUDING RECENT WRF-HRRR RUNS/ SUGGEST SOME CONGEALING OF TSTMS
   VIA OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR...AND COULD SUPPORT A MORE
   ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SW TX WHERE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31440376 32740357 33770289 34180247 34240201 33970148
               33310040 31049958 30929958 29920075 29840135 29840269
               29820286 30040356 30520388 31440376 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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