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Mesoscale Discussion 960
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN CO...WRN/CNTRL NEB...AND NWRN
   KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101902Z - 102100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MAINLY
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LARGE HAIL
   MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...WITH ONE SFC LOW OVER SERN CO...ANOTHER BROADER LOW
   PRESSURE AREA OVER CNTRL/ERN WY...AND A REMNANT COLD FRONT DRAPED
   ACROSS NEB THAT IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD. SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT REMAINS NEBULOUS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST SOME
   SMALL-SCALE FEATURES OVER ERN UT/WRN CO THAT ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
   BROADER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

   AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
   SERN WY...NRN CO...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHICH HAS GREATLY LIMITED
   DESTABILIZATION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...E
   OF THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
   TO MID 60S. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LBF SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVELS
   HAVE BECOME UNCAPPED...AND CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN OVER
   FRONTIER AND HAYES COUNTIES IN NEB ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

   EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS
   UNCLEAR...BUT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE
   MCD AREA...AND WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
   30-35 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION INTO
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
   WILL HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...BEFORE POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH
   SUGGESTED BY MULTIPLE CAMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTS IN A
   MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
   ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION/TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38470124 38650192 39680217 40930210 42030201 42850171
               42950062 42919953 42209863 40989829 40089824 39179905
               38469997 38470124 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2015
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