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Mesoscale Discussion 960
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0960
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305...

   Valid 062333Z - 070100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm
   development remains possible along the eastern slopes of the
   Sacramento Mountains and north of Tucumcari NM through 00-02Z.  The
   need for an additional severe weather watch this evening appears
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storm development continues to
   develop across parts of eastern New Mexico, in the presence of
   generally light (but modestly sheared in spots) northwesterly deep
   layer mean flow and steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.  CAPE
   appears largest (1000-2000 J/kg) within relatively moist upslope
   flow along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.  And this
   environment seems to offer the best potential for sustained vigorous
   storm development, including supercell structures, through the
   00-02Z time frame.

   A small consolidating cluster of thunderstorms north of Tucumcari NM
   could pose a risk for a strong downburst during the next hour or two
   while slowly developing southward.  Eventually, though, this
   activity may be disrupted by convective outflow now slowly advancing
   northward through the Tucumcari area.

   ..Kerr.. 06/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33670549 33720498 32950449 32320459 32760530 32860552
               33670549 

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