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Mesoscale Discussion 960
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112049Z - 112215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A COUPLE OF
   SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
   TORNADO ACROSS NORTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN NY THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CERTAIN/IMMINENT...THE NEED FOR A
   WATCH CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...AMID CLEARING SKIES...THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR AND
   WEST-SOUTHWEST OF A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY DESTABILIZE
   FROM NORTHWEST PA INTO WESTERN/UPSTATE NY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN SOME EARLIER
   NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER-MIDDLE 80S F SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES...MLCAPE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500-750 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN
   NY/NORTHWEST PA. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...NEAR-SURFACE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST WSR-88D
   VWP DATA FROM BUFFALO SUPPORTS AS MUCH AS 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. SEVERE HAIL/GUSTY
   WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42067956 43137861 44317648 43917535 42677611 41647810
               42067956 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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