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Mesoscale Discussion 961
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...SERN CO...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112102Z - 112200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN
   NM...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS LARGE HAIL INTO PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. A
   WW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CB
   AND AGITATED CU ACROSS NERN NM AND SERN CO...PRECEDING AN IMPULSE
   MOVING THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
   DEVELOPING WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS...NEAR/W OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT AND LEE SFC TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS SERN CO...AND THE WRN TX
   PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY. LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR
   ASCENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS FOR
   TRENDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE IMPULSE
   APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH EWD PROGRESSION...PARTICULARLY E OF THE COLD
   FRONT AND LEE SFC TROUGH...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AT 1000-2000
   J/KG. SUFFICIENT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   MARGINAL TSTM ORGANIZATION AS WELL...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
   PRIMARILY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL...POSSIBLE WITH
   THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37280110 35230060 33830118 33710152 33650201 33710265
               33980312 34300356 36350428 37070478 37560473 38200420
               38430339 38400251 38140190 38010119 37280110 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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