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Mesoscale Discussion 961
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...

   VALID 102013Z - 102145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN ADJACENT WW ISSUANCE E OF WW 282.
   ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND APPEAR PROBABLE WITH A
   CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...MAXIMUM IN THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS LIKELY CENTERED
   ALONG PARTS OF THE MO VALLEY IN SERN NEB/NWRN MO ACROSS THE MO/IA
   BORDER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
   TO MIDDLE 90S AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RESPECTIVELY...NEAR A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. INITIAL CU
   DEVELOPMENT TO TSTM INITIATION OCCURRED WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR PER
   1-MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION APPEARS
   PROBABLE TO DEVELOP NEWD AS THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
   ADVANCE N...BUT LIKELY CLUSTERING OF UPDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS SHOULD SHUNT
   OVERALL DEVELOPMENT MORE E AND EVENTUALLY SEWD WITH TIME THIS
   EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...BUT VERY LARGE
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ROBUST PULSE TO LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40709754 40779781 41219802 41579786 41669738 41319522
               41159322 40779215 40109234 39809320 39989550 40349697
               40709754 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2015
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