MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHERN FL/FL PANHANDLE/SE AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 211804Z - 211930Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   THE MAIN THREAT AND A WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY SHORTLY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPING CU
   OVER THE REGION AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /MLCAPE
   VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG/...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   VALUES /0 TO 6KM SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40KTS/.  STORMS THEREFORE WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
   WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO STORM
   MERGERS OR INTERACTIONS WITH LIKELY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS STORMS
   RECYCLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...AS
   THE DAY CONTINUES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN STORM
   INITIATION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
   MOVES SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 05/21/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...
   
   32048122 32078229 31808360 31568507 31438583 31148678
   31058725 30958765 30588785 30318772 30078698 29958648
   29828577 29798524 29828486 29658425 29698289 29758219
   29618149 29908128 30558140 31198125 31898095