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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHERN FL/FL PANHANDLE/SE AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211804Z - 211930Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT AND A WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY SHORTLY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPING CU
OVER THE REGION AND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG/...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES /0 TO 6KM SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40KTS/. STORMS THEREFORE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO STORM
MERGERS OR INTERACTIONS WITH LIKELY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS STORMS
RECYCLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY...AS
THE DAY CONTINUES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN STORM
INITIATION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
..LEVIT.. 05/21/2008
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...
32048122 32078229 31808360 31568507 31438583 31148678
31058725 30958765 30588785 30318772 30078698 29958648
29828577 29798524 29828486 29658425 29698289 29758219
29618149 29908128 30558140 31198125 31898095
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