MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0521 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 062221Z - 070015Z
   
   AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM CNTRL KS NEWD
   INTO NERN KS/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
   WILL BE LIKELY...AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM SW IA INTO
   CNTRL/SW KS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD
   INTO NRN KS. STRONG HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
   MID 90S F...AND MODIFIED FORECAST AND OBSERVED SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THE CAP SHOULD BE BREACHED SOON. CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SFC
   TROUGH AS WELL AS AN INCREASING LLJ AND THETA E ADVECTION MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CNTRL AND
   ESPECIALLY NERN KS LATER TODAY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   COUPLED WITH LARGE T/TD SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST
   RELATIVELY HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/06/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   39309878 39039926 38510000 38010010 37619896 37899808
               39029659 39819576 40179559 40719588 40629675 40209726
               39719810 39309878