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Mesoscale Discussion 962
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / SWRN KS / OK PANHANDLE / NERN TX
   PANHANDLE / NWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 112203Z - 112300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSE A LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT. 
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MAINLY A SEVERE
   STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TONIGHT AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE SEWD.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
   FROM A SURFACE LOW INVOF LAA.  AS OF 2135Z...KLHX IN SERN CO
   MEASURED A 52 KT GUST DUE TO AN ISOLD STORM AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
   STORM COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  A VERY DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S IS ADJACENT TO THE MOIST
   SECTOR TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE.  AS UPDRAFTS OVER THE QUAD STATE
   REGION ENCOUNTER RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STORMS WILL LIKELY
   INTENSIFY AND POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST
   THREAT.  THE STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN
   ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  BY THE 01-03Z
   TIMEFRAME...THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 45 KT OVER THE ERN
   PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT KS/OK.  THE INTENSIFYING WAA REGIME WILL
   SUPPORT FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER OR QLCS BY
   MID-EVENING.  THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING
   SHOULD EVOLVE FROM A HAIL/WIND THREAT TO MAINLY A WIND THREAT
   COINCIDENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITION.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35630147 36230245 36610290 36970305 37800310 38550231
               38690085 38469999 37189900 36379881 35629924 35380032
               35630147 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2014
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