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Mesoscale Discussion 962
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MT...NERN WY...FAR SWRN SD...AND
   FAR NWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102032Z - 102200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS NERN WY HAVE ALLOWED SFC
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S S OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
   EXTENDS FROM SERN MT...THROUGH SWRN SD...AND INTO NEB. ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER FAR NWRN NEB AND NERN WY...WITH
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING TCU DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE MCD AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN THIS TCU
   FIELD...AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-CNTRL/NERN WY. THE VWP
   FROM KUDX SHOWS A VEERING WIND PROFILE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   AND MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 25-30 KT. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
   THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL/GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
   BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES. THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT...AND A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   43530375 43150313 42620359 42340455 42620587 44000697
               45260802 45460782 45770680 45370568 44800458 43530375 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2015
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