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Mesoscale Discussion 962
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0962
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

   Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071648Z - 071915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat should continue this
   afternoon across the south-central Florida Peninsula. A brief
   tornado can not be ruled out as well. Weather watch issuance is not
   expected but the situation will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
   the northeastward Gulf of Mexico. A moist airmass is in place from
   the low southeastward across the Florida Peninsula where surface
   dewpoints are mostly in the lower 70s F. A band of strong
   thunderstorms is ongoing across the central Florida Peninsula. Ahead
   of this band, a narrow corridor of warmer surface temperatures is
   present and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500
   J/kg range. In addition, WSR-88D VWPs at Tampa Bay and Melbourne
   show 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 kt range with mostly
   unidirectional wind profiles. This should continue to support a line
   segment as it moves across the south-central Florida Peninsula. A
   marginal wind damage threat should exist with bowing structures
   embedded in the line. Although low-level shear is not that strong, a
   brief tornado may also occur if a cell within the line can develop
   rotation.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26608011 26937993 27568018 28058040 28138081 27308171
               26778226 26138198 25638106 26608011 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2017
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