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Mesoscale Discussion 963
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0963
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071836Z - 072100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado/landspout threat should continue through
   the afternoon. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated for this
   activity, although radar trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple reports of brief tornadoes/landspouts have
   been received across Grand Forks and Traill counties in ND since
   1745Z. These tornadoes are likely occurring due to non-supercellular
   processes. Namely, ambient low-level vorticity focused along a weak
   surface boundary across eastern ND is being tilted/stretched into
   the vertical within thunderstorm updrafts and beneath an
   eastward-moving upper low. Low-level lapse rates have steepened this
   afternoon along and east of the surface boundary with diurnal
   heating with MLCAPE now into the 500-750 J/kg range. The VWP from
   KMVX shows weak low-level southerly winds veering to southwesterly
   and modestly strengthening with height (to 4-5 km AGL). A
   combination of all these factors is likely contributing to the
   ongoing brief tornado/landspout threat. Current expectations are for
   the overall severe risk to remain marginal/isolated for the next
   several hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47889760 48519777 48729684 48669543 48289469 47259453
               46629548 46679708 47269743 47889760 

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