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Mesoscale Discussion 963
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
   SHENANDOAH VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 279...281...

   VALID 112256Z - 120030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   279...281...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED
   BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY STILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
   OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY
   00-02Z.

   DISCUSSION...CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SPREADING
   WESTWARD/NORTHWESTWARD FROM CONVECTION INITIATING IN THE MID
   ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
   DEVELOPS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. 
   CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
   MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHENIES...WITH 20-30 KT DEEP
   LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF
   A DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING COLD POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND THROUGH
   THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.  GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM/MIXED...SURFACE GUSTS
   AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS APPEAR POSSIBLE...AIDED BY
   PERSISTENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING.

   ..KERR.. 06/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36848129 37248117 38178017 38747940 38737867 37397882
               37127888 36787888 36597889 36097988 35658018 35628078
               36848129 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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