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Mesoscale Discussion 963
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/IND...SRN MI...NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102051Z - 102245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
   CENTERED BETWEEN 22-01Z WITH SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
   A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM THE THUMB
   OF LOWER MI SWWD TO CHICAGOLAND AND THE IA/MO BORDER AREA. MOST OF
   THIS BOUNDARY RESIDES ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS TO
   THE SW OF A STRONG JET CENTERED ACROSS NRN LOWER MI/LK HURON. THIS
   SHOULD BE COMPENSATED BY INCREASINGLY LARGE INSTABILITY WITH WRN
   EXTENT TO THE MS VALLEY. 1-MIN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SAMPLED
   CU INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST CAMS SUGGESTING SCATTERED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND WILL
   BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...BUT UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN THE DEGREE OF
   SUSTAINED ORGANIZED STORMS. THE RELATIVELY BEST COMBINATION OF
   CAPE/SHEAR MAY BE CONFINED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI INTO NERN IND/NWRN OH
   PER MODIFIED 18Z DTX RAOB. THE ENTIRE CORRIDOR OF THE FRONT WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE TSTM WATCHES.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41149106 41598910 41718777 41718716 41968595 42248405
               42168305 41548305 41218355 40888555 40728783 40699007
               40639106 40899145 41149106 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2015
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