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Mesoscale Discussion 964
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0964
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...southeastern WY...and
   western NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072012Z - 072215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and strong to damaging
   winds will exist through the early evening. Watch issuance is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery depicts an uptick in
   convective coverage and intensity across parts of eastern CO,
   southeastern WY, and western NE. A minor impulse noted on water
   vapor satellite crossing the central Rockies and weak low-level
   upslope flow are likely contributing to the increase in thunderstorm
   coverage. Low-level moisture remains generally limited per area 12Z
   soundings and 20Z surface observations showing dewpoints remaining
   in the upper 40s to mid 50s. But, ample diurnal heating along with
   steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE ranging from
   500 J/kg along the Front Range of CO to 1000-1500 J/kg farther east
   across the central High Plains.

   A large-scale upper ridge remains centered over much of the western
   CONUS and Rockies, with modest (generally 25 kt or less) mid-level
   northwesterly flow present over the discussion area. Still, a
   veering wind profile from the surface to around 6 km should support
   enough effective bulk shear to have semi-organized updrafts.
   Convection developing along the Front Range and what appears to be a
   weak surface boundary in western NE will be capable of isolated
   instances of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds through
   this evening. There may be some potential for one or more small
   clusters of thunderstorms to develop and move east-southeastward
   with time, which could increase the damaging wind threat some if
   they develop. Regardless, current expectations are for the overall
   severe risk to remain isolated/marginal, and watch issuance appears
   unlikely.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41290047 40000212 38470323 37030367 37040518 38700551
               40060548 41340537 42230537 42280421 42060261 41680096
               41290047 

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Page last modified: June 07, 2017
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