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Mesoscale Discussion 964
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN INTO CNTRL PENNSYLVANIA...WRN MD...THE
   ERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND NRN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 280...

   VALID 120007Z - 120130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 280 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS...MAY CONTINUE WITH
   CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF WW 280 THROUGH 01-02Z. 
   THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME AND AREA...BUT A NEW WATCH
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF STORMS
   LIKELY AFTER 02Z...IF NOT BEFORE.

   DISCUSSION...NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE COLD POOL...ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE ONGOING ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE CREST OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT ALLEGHENY
   PLATEAU THROUGH THE 01-02Z TIME FRAME...AIDED BY 30-50 KT LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW INTO THE REAR OF THE SYSTEM.  AS ACTIVITY
   PROGRESSES INTO AREAS WEST OF WILLIAMSPORT...INCLUDING THE STATE
   COLLEGE AREA...INFLOW OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   PRESENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID
   WEAKENING OF CONVECTION.  SIMILAR TRENDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISCRETE
   STORMS NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE JOHNSTOWN AND ALTOONA AREAS...AS
   THEY CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE THREAT FOR MAINLY BRIEF
   TORNADOES MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO WITH THESE STORMS.

   ..KERR.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41057870 41527911 41687809 41307756 40667801 39537730
               39087807 39567891 40267859 41057870 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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