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Mesoscale Discussion 964
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102307Z - 110100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NRN
   LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WRN NY. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS ON JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE STORMS WILL BE...THE OVERALL
   ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO...AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   A POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LWR GREAT LAKES. STORMS HAVE
   WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL SCANS...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE COOLER
   TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKES. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS WRN
   NY/ IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR
   AS SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
   REGION. THIS OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE
   PERSISTENCE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG --
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.   

   RECENT VAD DATA FROM BUF REVEALS A LAYER OF 50 KT WINDS NEAR 1 KM
   AND OVER 50 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN
   TANDEM WITH THE INSTABILITY IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE
   OVERALL FRONTAL SPEED...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW STRONG
   STORMS CAN BECOME BEFORE THEY EITHER DEVELOP A MORE LINEAR
   ORIENTATION OR ARE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION...SOME SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43257900 43367830 43207720 43777622 44187619 44817527
               44937428 44207447 43347507 42587638 42027891 42147975
               42447948 42787897 43257900 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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