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Mesoscale Discussion 965
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0965
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0422 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072122Z - 072315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur
   through this evening with the strongest thunderstorms. Watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath upper ridging centered over the Four Corners
   region/Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
   mainly across the higher terrain of much of NM. Surface dewpoints
   generally in the low to mid 40s indicate a relative lack of
   low-level moisture across the discussion area, and the 12Z sounding
   from ABQ had a precipitable water value of just 0.79 inch.
   Regardless, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 C/km and diurnal
   heating have resulted in mostly weak instability developing across
   NM this afternoon, with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1250 J/kg per 21Z
   RAP Mesoanalysis. Mid and upper-level flow remain weak per recent
   VWPs from KABX and KHDX, although some veering with height is
   contributing to 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be
   sufficient to support modest updraft organization within the
   strongest cores, and isolated instances of large hail may occur. In
   addition, strong/gusty winds will be possible given steep low-level
   lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer enhancing convective
   downdrafts. Overall, the severe threat through this evening will
   likely be tempered by weak wind shear/updrafts, and watch issuance
   is not expected.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/07/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33640754 35530730 36940611 36950371 36450332 34860317
               33760372 33400538 33640754 

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