Mesoscale Discussion 0965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0422 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017
Areas affected...Portions of NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072122Z - 072315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur
through this evening with the strongest thunderstorms. Watch
issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Beneath upper ridging centered over the Four Corners
region/Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
mainly across the higher terrain of much of NM. Surface dewpoints
generally in the low to mid 40s indicate a relative lack of
low-level moisture across the discussion area, and the 12Z sounding
from ABQ had a precipitable water value of just 0.79 inch.
Regardless, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 C/km and diurnal
heating have resulted in mostly weak instability developing across
NM this afternoon, with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1250 J/kg per 21Z
RAP Mesoanalysis. Mid and upper-level flow remain weak per recent
VWPs from KABX and KHDX, although some veering with height is
contributing to 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be
sufficient to support modest updraft organization within the
strongest cores, and isolated instances of large hail may occur. In
addition, strong/gusty winds will be possible given steep low-level
lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer enhancing convective
downdrafts. Overall, the severe threat through this evening will
likely be tempered by weak wind shear/updrafts, and watch issuance
is not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33640754 35530730 36940611 36950371 36450332 34860317
33760372 33400538 33640754