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Mesoscale Discussion 967
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0841 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS / NWRN AND CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 120141Z - 120315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
   CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS AND NWRN OK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONGEALING OF COLD POOLS IS LIKELY
   AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEVERE WIND PRODUCING MCS OR CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND PROMPT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   ISSUANCE BY 0300-0330Z.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ALONG
   A COLD FRONT OVER N-CNTRL KS AND A SEPARATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL KS.  FARTHER SOUTH...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
   CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.  THE LATEST 88D-VWP
   DATA SHOW SLY H85 WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 30 KT WITH THE LLJ
   FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO OVER 50 KT BY LATE EVENING.  A RESERVOIR
   OF STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES /APPROACHING 9 DEG C PER KM/ SAMPLED BY
   THE 00Z DDC AND AMA RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE UPDRAFT
   INTENSITY AS THE EXISTING STORM CLUSTERS CONGEAL AND MOVE INTO A
   MOIST AXIS OVER CNTRL OK NWD INTO CNTRL KS.  FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH
   VIA COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR A
   SEWD-MOVING CLUSTER/MCS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE WIND GUST RISK TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE INTO CNTRL KS AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO N-CNTRL OK.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37629959 38339907 38939762 38449666 37689637 36709632
               35519669 35279723 35319800 35769978 37629959 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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