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Mesoscale Discussion 967
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0967
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0711 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO and western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080011Z - 080245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A potentially developing cluster of thunderstorms may be
   sustained along its south-southeastward track over the central High
   Plains through the evening hours. Isolated severe wind/hail may
   accompany this activity. While convective trends will continue to be
   monitored, Watch issuance is presently unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The coverage of closely spaced convective
   cells/multicells over northeast CO is becoming sufficiently
   substantive, that there appears to be increasing potential for
   merging outflows to breed localized upscale convective growth early
   this evening. Inflow for this activity lies within a corridor of
   recycled moisture characterized by middle/upper 50s surface
   dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates supporting 500-1500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE. With widespread insolation south and southeast of this
   activity, MLCINH is sufficiently low for preferential regenerative
   convective growth along the southern fringes of the growing storm
   cluster -- especially as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
   through the evening. The net result could be a south-southeastward
   moving convective cluster being sustained through the evening hours
   across parts of eastern CO and western KS, with 900-1200 J/kg of
   DCAPE supporting isolated severe winds. Severe hail will also be
   possible with initially intensifying updrafts. However, with
   effective shear of only 20-25 kt, overall mesoscale convective
   organization may be somewhat lacking with leading-line convection
   potentially becoming quickly undercut by strong outflow.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/08/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38460341 39830377 40340287 40010191 38840106 38190125
               37890199 37850276 38460341 

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