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Mesoscale Discussion 968
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285...286...

   VALID 120441Z - 120615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   285...286...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN
   EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT WICHITA AND THE OKLAHOMA
   CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT
   OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 286.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING A COUPLE OF
   SIGNIFICANT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED
   WITH ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE MORE OF A
   SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
   CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   THE 50 KT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE NORTHERN COLD POOL WILL TAKE IT
   ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA AROUND 05Z...THEN EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH
   DURING THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME.  EAST OF WICHITA...HOWEVER... INFLOW
   OF AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MAY BEGIN
   TO WEAKEN THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AS
   NEW UPDRAFTS BECOME GRADUALLY WEAKER.  AT THE SAME TIME THE
   TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SURFACE GUST FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN.

   THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY HAVE LONGER
   LIFE...AND MAY TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE
   OKLAHOMA CITY AREA AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR OR
   SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A
   40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...AS IT SLOWLY VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 06-08Z.

   ..KERR.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35769978 35899889 36269856 36669834 37269825 37759794
               38279786 38769773 39029728 38339662 37629650 36129601
               35229697 35059814 35139952 35769978 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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