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Mesoscale Discussion 968
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SWRN KS...FAR NERN NM...AND
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111756Z - 111930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA....MOST LIKELY SERN CO.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF CO SEWD
   TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND THEN ARCING NEWD ACROSS SWRN INTO
   N-CNTRL KS TO A SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
   GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS E-CNTRL AND
   SERN CO...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE
   POST-FRONTAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP PER
   RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA...AROUND 6.5-7.0 DEG C/KM...STRONG DIURNAL
   HEATING AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
   MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE MCD AREA.

   AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES WITH EMBEDDED SPEED/VORTICITY
   MAXIMA IS APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENCOURAGE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT E
   OF THE FRONT RANGE IN CO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE...POSING A
   LARGE HAIL RISK GIVEN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO ALLOW CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO
   HAVE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. BACKED ELY TO NELY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS IN SERN CO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD
   OCCUR...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SRH IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG. FURTHER S ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ADDITIONAL
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
   COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER N.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38610109 36900051 36380099 36260216 36570312 37010383
               37600463 38500484 39350498 39650473 39850446 39730364
               39130222 38610109 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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