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Mesoscale Discussion 969
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111801Z - 112000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS...APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...BEFORE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EVOLVE LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES LIKELY WILL BE
   ISSUED BY 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG INSOLATION...RAPID DESTABILIZATION APPEARS
   WELL UNDERWAY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW NOW MIGRATING ALONG THE SURFACE
   FRONT...NORTH OF CONCORDIA KS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. 
   STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF
   MEDICINE LODGE THROUGH THE SALINA AREA...TOWARD BEATRICE NEB...
   ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE INFERRED MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
   THERMAL RIDGING EVIDENT AROUND 700 MB.  THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
   SUGGESTS THAT A COMBINATION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND
   MODEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF WEAKENING INHIBITION...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE EASTERN
   KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD MANHATTAN AND
   SALINA.  THIS APPEARS SUPPORTED BY CONVECTIVE TRENDS EVIDENT IN
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS
   EARLY AS 19-20Z DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ONCE STORMS INITIATE...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
   MODESTLY STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND CAPE ON THE
   ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET MAY BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF WEAKENING...SHEARED 30-40 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN
   FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  THIS MAY INCLUDE
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE
   LOW...ROUGHLY BETWEEN KANSAS CITY AND OMAHA BY 22-23Z.

   ..KERR/HART.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40579738 41339681 41569541 41169418 39529548 38379745
               38969795 39849738 40579738 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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