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Mesoscale Discussion 970
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OHIO...THE MIDDLE TIER OF
   PENNSYLVANIA...NRN NEW JERSEY...AND SERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING
   PORTIONS OF THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111847Z - 112045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO POTENTIALLY LIMITED STORM
   COVERAGE.  BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN
   THE FORM OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...APPEAR WEAK...BUT MODERATELY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ALONG A STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  INHIBITION FOR THE MIXED LAYER /NOW
   CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J PER KG/ CONTINUES TO
   ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
   DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AT LEAST SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 21-23Z.  SUSTAINED STORMS
   PROBABLY WILL BE AUGMENTED/ENHANCED BY BY MODEST WEST NORTHWESTERLY
   DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR /30-40 KT/...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
   OF THE SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE
   EAST OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR
   TWO SMALL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION...WITH ASSOCIATED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOLS
   ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41028186 41318078 41348007 41277808 41577609 41317359
               40517413 40317552 40147781 40137868 40588074 41028186 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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