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Mesoscale Discussion 970
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0970
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of western/central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082224Z - 090000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region
   late this afternoon into this evening. As storms progress northeast,
   they are expected to strengthen, with some potential for damaging
   winds and large hail. Watch issuance may be needed within the next
   hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Despite mid/high-level cloud cover having overspread
   the region today, surface temperatures have warmed into the 80s
   across much of western/central Montana. Increasing forcing for
   ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough and maturing
   orographic circulations have fostered the development of
   thunderstorms across the higher terrain of western Montana. As these
   storms progress north/northeast, they will encounter an environment
   characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates and adequate
   boundary layer moisture (e.g., surface dew points in the upper 40s
   to 50s). In turn, MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg will
   support vigorous updraft accelerations, and strong, uni-directional
   south/southwesterly mid-level flow will encourage splitting/bowing
   structures, enhancing the threat of damaging winds. Related to this
   strong mid/upper flow, favorable effective shear may yield a few
   rotating updrafts in any semi-discrete cores, resulting in some
   instances of large hail. Considering this increasing threat of
   severe weather, convective trends are being monitored for potential
   watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Weiss.. 06/08/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   46661393 46991411 49001399 49011068 48890997 47770991
               47091092 46161292 46331363 46661393 

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Page last modified: June 09, 2017
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