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Mesoscale Discussion 970
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0851 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST/NORTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121351Z - 121445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSING SEWD. PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY APPEARS
   TO BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW...WHICH MAY BECOME
   MORE PROBABLE INTO THE LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCS OVER N TX.
   THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF 1345Z WERE LOCATED OVER VAN ZANDT AND
   KAUFMAN COUNTIES TX. BOTH SHV AND FWD RAOBS SAMPLED AN AIR MASS
   CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...YIELDING
   MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS
   TO BE VEERING BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW...BUT THIS SHOULD STILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION. 

   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING.
   HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL HEATING BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION /AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-80S F/...THE POTENTIAL
   FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD INCREASE...WITH
   THE FORMER THREAT ENHANCED IF CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE INTO SMALL
   LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR
   POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE
   ACROSS EAST/NORTHEAST TX AND NORTHWEST LA.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33239557 33169427 32539360 31509317 31069362 30759522
               30969643 31299726 32189750 33239557 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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