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Mesoscale Discussion 971
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MO...FAR N-CNTRL/NERN AR...FAR SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121647Z - 121815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
   EXIST ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO AND INTO SRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY MO SWD
   INTO BAXTER COUNTY AR /AS OF 1640Z/ HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
   PAST 1-2 HRS...AND IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MCV
   OVER SWRN MO. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
   WAS NOTED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF MO...WITH AN EFFECTIVE COLD
   FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS SERN INTO CNTRL
   MO. STRONGER HEATING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF MO AND
   NRN AR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-70S F AS OF 16Z. THIS
   CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG PROBABLE...AND
   SHOULD SUPPORT STORM SUSTENANCE INTO SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL. AMBIENT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE TSTM LINE WITH EWD
   PROGRESSION. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS...BUT GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE CONSIDERATIONS AND MODEST
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL.
   GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...THE SVR RISK APPEARS TO
   BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36199133 36169210 36309244 36819252 37119252 37679160
               38149057 38238961 37868912 37518898 36388962 36199034
               36199133 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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