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Mesoscale Discussion 971
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN WY...THE SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND
   NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111849Z - 112045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...A WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS SERN WY AND NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
   FURTHER S ACROSS E-CNTRL/SERN CO...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
   COOLER...CLOUD COVER IS MORE PREVALENT...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE POORER. THESE FACTORS ARE LIMITING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG.
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY S OF THIS
   AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS AT 5-6 KM ESTIMATED
   AROUND 10-20 KT PER THE KCYS VWP. THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD YIELD ONLY A
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
   AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42030507 42070403 41100287 40530238 40060231 39970358
               40000440 40190513 40660527 40890525 41280520 42030507 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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