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Mesoscale Discussion 971
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0971
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0704 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 090004Z - 090100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are increasing in intensity across
   the TX Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats
   with this activity. Watch will be needed soon based on radar trends.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convection that has struggled to intensify
   most of the afternoon/early evening has recently strengthened along
   an outflow boundary from prior thunderstorms in Moore and Hansford
   counties in the TX Panhandle. Latest radar trends indicate the
   supercell storm in Moore county in particular show the potential for
   large to very large (2+ inch) hail, along with a damaging wind
   threat. The environment across this region remains favorable for
   storm organization, as veering/strengthening winds with height per
   KAMA VWP are supporting 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear per 00Z RAP
   Mesoanalysis. Supercell modes will be favored with this initial
   development. There will be some potential for clustering of this
   isolated activity to develop southward along a low-level moisture
   gradient across the central TX Panhandle, which would increase the
   damaging wind threat through the evening. Based on the latest radar
   trends it appears a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon.

   ..Gleason/Weiss.. 06/09/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33530210 34010274 34660293 34960289 35500207 36130160
               36470134 36410015 34170015 33610082 33530210 

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