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Mesoscale Discussion 972
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 121919Z - 122115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. TSTMS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO. A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ACROSS
   W-CNTRL/CNTRL TX...OWING TO A DECAYING MCS OVER N/NE TX AND THE
   RESULTANT STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THE
   PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SYNOPTIC FRONT. AS OF
   19Z...SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS PLACED A SFC LOW N OF DEL
   RIO...ATTENDANT TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS NWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30
   E BGS...AND THEN NEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT HAS PROGRESSED SWD TO BECOME ORIENTED W-E
   ROUGHLY FROM JCT TO AUS...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING OCCURRING
   HERE COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE N WHERE EARLIER CLOUD
   COVER/PRECIPITATION HAS LIMITED HEATING SOMEWHAT. VERY STRONG
   HEATING IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
   THE UPPER 80S TO 90S F. THE COMBINATION OF A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
   3000-4000 J/KG.

   WHILE STILL UNCLEAR...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE
   PROBABLE ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AS CINH IS QUICKLY ERODING...AND AN
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS APPROACHING THE REGION.
   GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...TSTMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
   QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...IN
   ADDITION TO DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED S OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LARGE T-TD SPREADS EXIST AMIDST STRONG
   HEATING...BUT RELATIVELY MORE ENHANCED ALONG/N OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
   BACKED SFC WINDS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE...WHICH
   MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29679874 29549968 29710073 30160141 30620146 31220146
               32410083 32769998 32989925 33039869 32819799 32219708
               31149682 30339667 29839703 29679874 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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