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Mesoscale Discussion 973
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK

   CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

   VALID 180707Z - 180800Z

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL SHOULD
   DEVELOP WITH A POTENTIALLY SOUTHWARD-ACCELERATING CLUSTER OF STORMS
   FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS REGION IS EFFECTIVELY UPGRADED TO SLIGHT AND
   MARGINAL RISKS THROUGH 12Z. PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE IS 40
   PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...A RECENT INCREASE IN BOTH REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY
   TRENDS HAVE OCCURRED AS SEPARATED CELLS CONGLOMERATED ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST KS...JUST SOUTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA. AIR MASS TO THE
   SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AMID 72-75 DEG F
   SURFACE DEW POINTS. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH
   HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR MIGHT BE PRESENT TO
   SUPPORT A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS WESTERN OK...A SCENARIO
   SIMULATED IN RECENT HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS. GIVEN THE VERY STEEP 700-500
   MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 DEG C/KM SAMPLED IN 00Z AREA RAOBS...THE
   SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS
   EMBEDDED AREAS OF SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36990029 37159959 37249884 37059844 36799800 35689785
               34799818 34579871 34619936 35039976 36090004 36990029 

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Page last modified: June 18, 2016
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