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Mesoscale Discussion 973
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121944Z - 122115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGH
   TERRAIN OF CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO
   POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN IN
   CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITHIN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG...AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM
   SHEAR.  COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY FLOW...ENVIRONMENT WILL
   SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
   SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAIL FORECAST GUIDANCE
   FROM NAM AND RAP FORECASTS SUGGEST MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE BETWEEN 1.0 AND
   1.5 INCHES WITH STRONGEST STORMS.  DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WITH STEEP
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 
   BASED ON LATEST CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING 12Z SSEO AND 17Z
   HRRR...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD WITHIN THIS
   FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY 0600
   UTC.

   ..SCHNEIDER/GUYER.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36590524 38380516 39970544 39870342 38440313 37350311
               35510320 35470426 35430535 36590524 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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