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Mesoscale Discussion 974
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0974
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

   Areas affected...Northern and eastern North Dakota into northwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 092026Z - 092230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form around 22Z
   over north central North Dakota, and grow upscale into eastern North
   Dakota into northwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail and
   damaging winds are likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field increasing in size and
   depth near the warm front over northern ND, and extending southward
   within the surface warm axis where temperatures have risen into the
   mid 90s. Meanwhile, a weak surface low/trough will continue to
   deepen and shift eastward with time, further increasing convergence.
   This increasing lift and continued heating, combined with strong
   warm advection should result in storm formation by around 22Z across
   north central ND. The strong southerly low-level jet will favor a
   southeastward storm motion via propagation, as cells grow upscale
   with increasing damaging wind threat. Large boundary layer
   temperature/dewpoint spreads as seen on 19Z BIS sounding should
   further favor outflow production.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/09/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47600060 48210133 48730134 49060100 49069652 48709616
               48189604 47379602 46859637 46729690 46809800 46869879
               47199960 47600060 

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