|Mesoscale Discussion 974|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017
Areas affected...Northern and eastern North Dakota into northwest
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 092026Z - 092230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form around 22Z
over north central North Dakota, and grow upscale into eastern North
Dakota into northwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds are likely.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field increasing in size and
depth near the warm front over northern ND, and extending southward
within the surface warm axis where temperatures have risen into the
mid 90s. Meanwhile, a weak surface low/trough will continue to
deepen and shift eastward with time, further increasing convergence.
This increasing lift and continued heating, combined with strong
warm advection should result in storm formation by around 22Z across
north central ND. The strong southerly low-level jet will favor a
southeastward storm motion via propagation, as cells grow upscale
with increasing damaging wind threat. Large boundary layer
temperature/dewpoint spreads as seen on 19Z BIS sounding should
further favor outflow production.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 47600060 48210133 48730134 49060100 49069652 48709616
48189604 47379602 46859637 46729690 46809800 46869879
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