Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 974
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 974 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...NWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122022Z - 122145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   MAY ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS NERN AR...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
   DOWNSHEAR E OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF TSTMS PRECEDING A MCV/IMPULSE
   MOVING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU HAS SLOWLY DEVELOPED/EXPANDED SWWD
   INTO N-CNTRL PORTIONS OF AR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   CO-LOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
   VALUES ESTIMATED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. LATEST WDSS-II RADAR-DERIVED
   MESH ALGORITHM INDICATES HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THESE TSTMS IS SLOWLY
   INCREASING. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...MODERATE
   MIDLEVEL WLYS OF AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL STORM
   ORGANIZATION. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR E TSTMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
   CURRENT INTENSITY GIVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER INSTABILITY IN PLACE E OF
   THE MS VALLEY...BUT AT LEAST A NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS SHOULD EXIST. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34579182 35159231 35899253 36209225 36359164 36389090
               36409017 36438943 36308899 34608946 34379002 34409070
               34579182 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 12, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities