MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO PARTS OF SE NEB/SW IA/NW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 071936Z - 072130Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
   UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
   OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.
   
   BENEATH THE CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
   KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY
   INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED
   EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A WEAK WAVE ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
   NORTHEAST KANSAS.  A NORTH-SOUTH UPSTREAM CLOUD BAND EVIDENT IN
   SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF
   MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT SUPPRESSIVE OF INHIBITION.  THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT... COUPLED WITH
   ADDITIONAL HEATING...TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS EARLY AS
   21-22Z.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST NEAR/WEST THROUGH
   NORTH OF TOPEKA...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...
   AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AS 850 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK
   TO SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 30+ KT...AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/07/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   40119681 40749658 41409519 40889453 39949444 39449474
               38579519 38399584 38409642 38569669 39199687 40119681