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Mesoscale Discussion 975
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE KS...FAR NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112147Z - 112245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
   FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS. SOME ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE
   WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS S-CNTRL KS WITH A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE TREAT ACROSS NE KS AND FAR NW MO.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY
   AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST SW OF
   FNB /IN FAR SE NEB/ TO N OF PIT IN S-CNTRL KS. 

   THE BEST SVR ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO FROM ABOUT EMP NEWD TOWARD STJ
   WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   UPPER 60 TO LOW 70S...AND MLCAPE IS AROUND 2000-2500 J PER KG. THIS
   AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BETTER SHEAR BUT MESOANALYSIS
   STILL SUGGESTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 30 KT. AS A
   RESULT...THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ARE
   POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO
   COVER THE SVR THREAT.

   FARTHER SE ACROSS S-CNTRL KS...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT
   IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2000 J PER KG. THE OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY
   GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE
   TROPICAL AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER FACTOR
   SUGGESTING ONLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
   BETTER SHEAR TO THE NW OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...DESPITE AT LEAST
   SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
   WW HERE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   39529380 38459557 37159829 37079984 37499960 38219814
               38969690 40049486 39529380 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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