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Mesoscale Discussion 975
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0975
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092158Z - 100030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat for hail and wind damage will be
   possible late this afternoon into this evening across parts of
   central Texas. Weather watch issuance is not expected due to the
   marginal nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in
   place from the lower Texas coast extending northward across the
   Texas Hill Country. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the
   upper 60s and lower 70s F which is contributing to MLCAPE estimated
   by the RAP to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. To the west of this
   pocket of moderate instability, a vorticity max is evident on water
   vapor imagery over west-central and southwest Texas. This feature
   will continue to move eastward and will support a general increase
   in convective coverage over the next few hours. In addition, WSR-88d
   VWPs across central Texas show gradually veering winds with height
   in the low to mid-levels which is resulting in 0-6 km shear in the
   25 to 30 kt range according to the RAP. This combined with the
   instability and steep lapse rates in the mid-levels will support a
   marginal severe threat. Hail will be possible with the stronger
   updrafts and a few strong wind gusts may also occur as thunderstorm
   downdrafts develop and mature over the next hour or two.

   ..Broyles/Weiss.. 06/09/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29699825 29349938 29350017 30100060 30740013 30879911
               31369834 31049784 30259765 29699825 

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