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Mesoscale Discussion 975
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN UT...FAR SERN ID...SWRN WY...FAR NWRN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122039Z - 122145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   CNTRL/NRN UT...AND COULD EXTEND EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN WY AND FAR
   NWRN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN UT...AIDED BY AMPLE DIURNAL
   HEATING AND STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. THIS AREA IS
   LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND
   STRONGER WLYS ALOFT...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MARGINAL
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AT 200-500 J/KG. MORE
   ROBUST DESTABILIZATION IS BEING LIMITED BY MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEP INVERTED-V TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES ARE
   IN PLACE...AND ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. MODERATE
   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING GRADUAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT ARE
   ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR MARGINAL TSTM ORGANIZATION IF STRONGER UPDRAFTS
   CAN TAKE ROOT...WITH AN ENHANCED STRONG WIND GUST AND SMALL HAIL
   THREAT POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT AND THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A WW DOES
   NOT APPEAR NECESSARY...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   41780788 40490793 39620889 39421023 39361156 39361252
               39631335 39701362 40141401 40931392 41771303 42321169
               42561064 42610892 41780788 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2014
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