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| Mesoscale Discussion 976 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072100Z - 072200Z
ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX WILL
POSE AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM DURATION SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT.
UNCERTAINTY OVER LONGEVITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO EVOLVE E/NEWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
AS OF 2055Z...RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL AROUND 40
E FST...WITH A SPLITTING CELL EVOLVING NWD. INTERPOLATED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AIR MASS IS DEEPLY MIXED ALONG DRYLINE/TROUGH
AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S. GIVEN THE STEEPNESS OF LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH NEAR 40
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND APPARENT LACK
OF LARGER-SCALE FORCED ASCENT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING
OVERALL COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION.
..GRAMS.. 06/07/2009
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31000019 29020070 29750142 29760265 30750236 32090159
32850117 33280090 33390037 33349990 32709956 31869970
31000019
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