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Mesoscale Discussion 976
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 112151Z - 112245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND A
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE TSTMS
   DEVELOPING OVER THE NWRN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK PNHDL INVOF A COLD
   FRONT WHICH HAS SETTLED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY
   FORMING IN A RELATIVELY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.  MOREOVER...BACKED SURFACE
   WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH A BELT OF 30 KT FLOW IN
   THE MID TROPOSPHERE...YIELDING SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

   ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERE HOURS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.  OTHER SEVERE
   STORMS ONGOING OVER SERN CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN KS WITHIN
   THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT.

   ..MEAD.. 06/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36460295 36790295 36960261 36970192 37460193 37870188
               38190142 38130078 38029985 37779944 37319922 37049935
               36729959 36400030 36170088 36120154 36060219 36460295 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2015
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