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Mesoscale Discussion 977
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0977
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100137Z - 100400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage and
   intensity across southeast MT through the evening hours. Some of the
   stronger storms will be capable of severe-caliber wind gusts and
   some hail.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have shown signs of intensification early
   this evening across southeast MT, particularly near/between
   Interstates 90 and 94 from near Hardin to the Forsyth/Rosebud areas
   (southwest of Miles City) as of 0130Z. While the boundary layer is
   not overly moist or potentially unstable in the presence of lower
   40s F surface dewpoints, weak CAPE/steep lapse rates and
   strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds (noted in upstream 00Z
   upper-air data) above the surface will support some stronger
   updrafts/downdrafts. This may especially be the case as stronger
   forcing for ascent currently overspreading eastern ID/southwest
   MT/far western WY approaches the region, while low-level upslope
   trajectories continue to gradually increase within the post-frontal
   environment. 

   Any severe risk across southeast MT over the next few hours should
   remain relatively localized, although a somewhat more organized
   cluster of storms capable of localized severe-caliber winds could
   eventually materialize and spread northeastward later this evening.

   ..Guyer/Weiss.. 06/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45920807 47020500 45920418 45040677 45920807 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2017
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