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Mesoscale Discussion 978
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

   Valid 100230Z - 100330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe risk appears to be transitioning to mainly damaging
   winds across eastern ND, and a slow decrease in the overall threat
   should occur as storms approach the Red River. While a local
   extension in area of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch could be needed
   for a small part of northwestern MN, downstream watch issuance into
   more of northern MN appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends across eastern ND over the past hour have
   shown a transition to a mixed mode of supercells/short line
   segments, with a general decrease in reflectivities at 7 and 9 km
   CAPPIs. Surface observations suggest this ongoing convection is
   beginning to impinge on a surface warm front located across eastern
   ND into northwestern MN. The airmass to the east of the warm front
   is much less unstable, and convection should undergo a slow
   weakening trend as it approaches the Red River over the next several
   hours. In the meantime, a strengthening 40-50 kt southerly low-level
   jet evidenced on the KABR VWP may help to maintain the intensity of
   the ongoing thunderstorms, and damaging winds would appear to be the
   main severe threat in the short term, although large hail may still
   occur with any embedded supercell. In addition, a tornado cannot be
   ruled out with any supercell that crosses the warm front in the
   short term.

   Another small local extension in area may be needed within the next
   hour for a portion of northwestern MN (Norman/Clay counties and
   vicinity) based on current radar trends. But, given the increasingly
   marginal thermodynamic environment with eastward extent into
   northern MN, downstream watch issuance is unlikely.

   ..Gleason.. 06/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46689883 49029807 49009508 48709431 46429461 46689883 

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