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Mesoscale Discussion 979
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0979
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

   Areas affected...MN Arrowhead

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102031Z - 102230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
   hail are possible during the next few hours across the MN arrowhead.
   A watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis show the frontal boundary is
   located from just east of ORB southwestward through AIT. Visible
   imagery shows an increasingly agitated cu field along and just ahead
   of this boundary. The character of this cu field suggests convective
   inhibition is eroding, which matches the most recent mesoanalysis
   estimates of little remaining convective inhibition. Temperatures
   have warmed into the upper 80s ahead of the front, which, when
   coupled with dewpoints in the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse
   rates is supportive of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Additionally,
   downstream kinematic profiles characterized by strong mid-level flow
   (over 70 kt at 500 mb) and ample bulk shear (over 60 kt from 0-6 km
   per the latest mesoanalysis) suggest the potential for storm
   organization. The persistent warm mid-level temperatures and
   associated capping will likely temper convective coverage and the
   current expectation is for any thunderstorm activity to remain
   co-located with the frontal boundary. Even so, favorable
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment results in the potential for
   a few damaging wind gusts and hail with any storms that do develop.
   Anticipated limited spatial and temporal extent of the threat is
   expected to preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Bunting.. 06/10/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47349296 48229191 48249111 47899032 46759218 46649314

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