|Mesoscale Discussion 979|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017
Areas affected...MN Arrowhead
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102031Z - 102230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail are possible during the next few hours across the MN arrowhead.
A watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis show the frontal boundary is
located from just east of ORB southwestward through AIT. Visible
imagery shows an increasingly agitated cu field along and just ahead
of this boundary. The character of this cu field suggests convective
inhibition is eroding, which matches the most recent mesoanalysis
estimates of little remaining convective inhibition. Temperatures
have warmed into the upper 80s ahead of the front, which, when
coupled with dewpoints in the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates is supportive of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Additionally,
downstream kinematic profiles characterized by strong mid-level flow
(over 70 kt at 500 mb) and ample bulk shear (over 60 kt from 0-6 km
per the latest mesoanalysis) suggest the potential for storm
organization. The persistent warm mid-level temperatures and
associated capping will likely temper convective coverage and the
current expectation is for any thunderstorm activity to remain
co-located with the frontal boundary. Even so, favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment results in the potential for
a few damaging wind gusts and hail with any storms that do develop.
Anticipated limited spatial and temporal extent of the threat is
expected to preclude the need for a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 47349296 48229191 48249111 47899032 46759218 46649314
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