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Mesoscale Discussion 980
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0980
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0812 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of western Upper MI and northern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110112Z - 110315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...While an isolated severe storm may develop this evening,
   the overall severe threat is expected to remain too marginal to
   warrant watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite as of 00Z shows some attempts at
   convective initiation along and just ahead of a surface cold front
   across northern WI into western Upper MI. One thunderstorm has been
   successful in maintaining itself over southwestern Lake Superior as
   it moves over Houghton County in the Upper Peninsula of MI. However,
   low-level convergence along the cold front is weak, with veered
   southwesterly flow across the warm sector ahead of it. Very warm 700
   mb temperatures (13+ C at GRB and OAX) across this region, neutral
   to rising mid-level heights, and strengthening convective inhibition
   with the onset of diurnal cooling are all acting to limit the
   prospect for substantial thunderstorm development this evening.
   While a strong to severe storm or two with marginally severe hail
   and strong/gusty winds could occur over the next several hours,
   particularly with northward extent into western Upper MI where
   mid-level temperatures are slightly cooler, the likelihood for a
   long-lived/organized severe threat appears quite low. Therefore,
   watch issuance is not expected at this time.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44489173 44679241 45249259 46129114 47018969 47528803
               47458749 46928796 45229040 44489173 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2017
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