|Mesoscale Discussion 980|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of western Upper MI and northern WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110112Z - 110315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...While an isolated severe storm may develop this evening,
the overall severe threat is expected to remain too marginal to
warrant watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite as of 00Z shows some attempts at
convective initiation along and just ahead of a surface cold front
across northern WI into western Upper MI. One thunderstorm has been
successful in maintaining itself over southwestern Lake Superior as
it moves over Houghton County in the Upper Peninsula of MI. However,
low-level convergence along the cold front is weak, with veered
southwesterly flow across the warm sector ahead of it. Very warm 700
mb temperatures (13+ C at GRB and OAX) across this region, neutral
to rising mid-level heights, and strengthening convective inhibition
with the onset of diurnal cooling are all acting to limit the
prospect for substantial thunderstorm development this evening.
While a strong to severe storm or two with marginally severe hail
and strong/gusty winds could occur over the next several hours,
particularly with northward extent into western Upper MI where
mid-level temperatures are slightly cooler, the likelihood for a
long-lived/organized severe threat appears quite low. Therefore,
watch issuance is not expected at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44489173 44679241 45249259 46129114 47018969 47528803
47458749 46928796 45229040 44489173
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