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Mesoscale Discussion 980
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130817Z - 130945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY SPORADICALLY OCCUR WITH A
   COUPLE OF STORMS PROGRESSING NEWD FROM THE GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE
   AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 11Z.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS OVER SW CASCADE COUNTY HAVE HAD
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH RECENTLY REPORTED HAIL UP TO
   AN INCH IN DIAMETER PER WFO TFX. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
   ROOTED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER WITH WEAK BUOYANCY CHARACTERIZED BY
   MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...ROBUST SPEED SHEAR PER TFX VWP DATA WITHIN
   THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION. MOST
   OF THIS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SMALL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   BUOYANCY...BUT SPORADIC 1 INCH HAIL REPORTS MAY CONTINUE TO BE
   REALIZED FOR A FEW HOURS AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES NEWD WITHIN A CORRIDOR
   OF FRONTOGENETIC-FORCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER WA.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47371210 48191081 48730967 48860897 48780838 48360788
               47970801 47590861 47120940 46811023 46461130 46481202
               46691226 47001237 47371210 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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