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Mesoscale Discussion 981
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131805Z - 131900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS W-CNTRL/CNTRL NM...WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY. COVERAGE OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   INSUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS FOR MID-JUNE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST...WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75-1 INCH. 
   STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS COINCIDENT WITH THE ONSET OF
   DIURNAL HEATING...ALONG WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION YIELDING MLCAPE
   VALUES OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MORNING TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ANCHORED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
   WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. 

   MODERATELY MIDLEVEL WLYS /AROUND 30 KT/ ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   AREA...AND WILL PROMOTE FAST STORM MOTIONS AND ENCOURAGE GUSTY
   OUTFLOW WINDS AND STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...WITH STORMS LIKELY
   PERSISTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
   INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE PBL WILL ALSO
   MAINTAIN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG TO
   POSSIBLY ISOLATED SVR DOWNBURST WINDS.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   35360569 34430578 33010603 32540666 32330765 32440799
               33360870 34020879 34740863 35240838 35520795 35840732
               36220664 36170606 35360569 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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