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Mesoscale Discussion 981
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0981
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0944 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast WY into western and central SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 110244Z - 110445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for storms to increase in coverage,
   intensity and severe-weather threat is becoming more likely across
   far northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota.  WW issuance will
   be coordinated soon for parts of western and central South Dakota
   for this evening into the overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated an increase in
   storm development and intensity since 0120-0140Z across northeast WY
   and adjacent western SD where both low-level convergence and upslope
   flow into the Black Hills is indicating an increase in moisture/
   destabilization.  Further strengthening of southerly low-level winds
   into tonight from the central Plains into SD will support additional
   theta-e advection.  This combined with a plume of steepening
   700-500-mb layer lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km spreading across the
   low-level moistening will support moderate instability.  Vertically
   veering winds from southerly at low-levels to 500-mb southwesterly
   winds of 55-75 kt will contribute to quite favorable bulk shear for
   storms to organize. 

   Given cooling surface temperatures, new storm development should be
   primarily elevated within a strengthening low-level warm air
   advection regime as a warm front advances poleward toward the NE/SD
   border overnight.  Despite the elevated nature of these storms,
   sufficient dry air in the lower troposphere per 00Z RAP sounding
   should allow for a damaging-wind threat, in addition to large hail.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44420415 45060368 45450118 45459985 45069834 44109799
               43689794 43419952 43300139 43410249 43490370 44420415 

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