|Mesoscale Discussion 982|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017
Areas affected...Western and central SD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...
Valid 110456Z - 110700Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with attendant severe-weather threat are
expected to increase in coverage from west to east overnight, with
large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe risks.
DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery continued to show thunderstorms
developing across the western part of WW 310 (in northeast WY into
western SD), as strengthening southerly low-level winds result in
northward theta-e advection into southern SD. This destabilizing
process will continue north of the warm front, which was analyzed at
0430Z extending from the NE Panhandle to northeast NE. Objective
analyses indicated strong low-level warm air advection, especially
at 700 mb, which will further aid in destabilization. Thus, these
factors combined with steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing
bulk shear are expected to support additional thunderstorm
development from west to east, with a gradual increase in
severe-weather risk as activity develops from western into central
SD. Last several runs of the HRRR suggest a marked increase in
thunderstorm coverage across WW 310 between 07-09Z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43510302 43560468 44080493 44650397 45190343 45490227
45660012 45589872 44219867 43429928 43360204 43510302
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