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Mesoscale Discussion 982
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0982
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

   Areas affected...Western and central SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...

   Valid 110456Z - 110700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with attendant severe-weather threat are
   expected to increase in coverage from west to east overnight, with
   large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe risks.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery continued to show thunderstorms
   developing across the western part of WW 310 (in northeast WY into
   western SD), as strengthening southerly low-level winds result in
   northward theta-e advection into southern SD.  This destabilizing
   process will continue north of the warm front, which was analyzed at
   0430Z extending from the NE Panhandle to northeast NE.  Objective
   analyses indicated strong low-level warm air advection, especially
   at 700 mb, which will further aid in destabilization.  Thus, these
   factors combined with steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing
   bulk shear are expected to support additional thunderstorm
   development from west to east, with a gradual increase in
   severe-weather risk as activity develops from western into central
   SD.  Last several runs of the HRRR suggest a marked increase in
   thunderstorm coverage across WW 310 between 07-09Z.

   ..Peters.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43510302 43560468 44080493 44650397 45190343 45490227
               45660012 45589872 44219867 43429928 43360204 43510302 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2017
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