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Mesoscale Discussion 983
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL THRU E CNTRL MONTANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131910Z - 132115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
   CORRIDOR REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION BY 21-23Z...AND TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE RAPID REFRESH...AND PARTICULARLY THE HIGH
   RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST
   ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SPEED
   MAXIMUM...WITHIN A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS IT PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
   BASED ON DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY EVIDENT ALONG
   MOUNTAINS WEST OF BILLINGS...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST IS
   GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING WITH INSOLATION.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
   OF BILLINGS...TOWARD THE GLENDIVE AREA...APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
   STORMS.  HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
   MIXING...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG...BUT FAVORABLY
   SHEARED...SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
   MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46250943 47200730 47200556 46530542 46110773 45650935
               46250943 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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