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Mesoscale Discussion 983
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0983
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...east-central and northeast SD...southwest into
   central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 110702Z - 110800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat over central SD will move east of WW 310
   and into portions of eastern SD and eventually into parts of
   southwest MN.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a cluster of severe thunderstorms
   developing over central SD at the terminus of a 60-kt central Plains
   LLJ.  Subjective surface mesoanalysis places a warm front advancing
   northward through the NE Sandhills east-northeast through extreme
   southeast SD into far southeastern MN.  

   Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow (60-70 kt at 500-mb per 00Z
   RAP and ABR raobs) will strongly favor storm organization with
   effective shear 50-60 kt.  Although surface conditions across the
   discussion area are in the lower 70s with 50s degrees F dewpoints,
   strong warm/moist advection above the surface will continue to
   destabilize the airmass to the east of the ongoing storms.  Forecast
   soundings show 700-500 mb lapse rates steepening markedly during the
   next several hours (in excess of 8 degrees C/km).  Upscale growth
   into a severe-wind producing MCS is expected later tonight into the
   early morning but large hail/severe gusts will be the threats with
   the storms before the convective mode transition occurs (somewhere
   over eastern SD approaching the MN border).

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45449872 45689443 45239366 44739358 44299401 43879647
               43779938 45449872 

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Page last modified: June 11, 2017
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