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Mesoscale Discussion 984
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MONTANA...NERN WY...WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
   ADJACENT SWRN NORTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131946Z - 132115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  A WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO.

   DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY EVIDENT WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
   MIXING ACROSS/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BIG HORNS.  ON THE WESTERN EDGE
   OF A 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS...SURFACE
   DEW POINTS ARE RISING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE BLACK
   HILLS INTO AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST OF
   MILES CITY.  BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
   VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING MIXED LAYER
   CAPE...WHICH COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG ACROSS AT LEAST THE BLACK
   HILLS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAY PERSIST
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY EVENING...WEAKENING INHIBITION
   WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT AND
   DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
   DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   ALREADY APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AND WILL PROBABLY STRENGTHEN
   FURTHER.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 06/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45890694 46470498 46140414 45290350 44010276 42870378
               43470511 43510597 43960679 45320726 45890694 

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Page last modified: June 13, 2014
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