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Mesoscale Discussion 984
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...NWRN OK...OK PANHANDLE...NRN
   TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...

   VALID 120410Z - 120515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LOCAL EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286 WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND BEYOND
   05Z. BEYOND 07Z THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SVR TSTMS WERE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
   AT 0405Z IN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO WW 286...IN PROXIMITY TO A
   SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN OVER SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK AND NRN
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...IN PROXIMITY TO STRONG ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A CONTINUED TRANSITION
   TO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA AS
   OUTFLOWS CONGEAL. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SOME SVR
   HAIL/WIND THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 05Z
   EXPIRATION OF WW 286...AND A LOCAL AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS
   THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

   BEYOND 06-07Z AND FARTHER SOUTH/EAST OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
   ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR THREAT THAT WOULD REQUIRE A NEW WW.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36429921 35640025 35440195 35550252 36340284 36840203
               37120189 37700150 37730025 37779928 37689862 37309838
               37169850 36429921 

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Page last modified: June 12, 2015
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